I can’t see how he’d get there barring something ridiculous in NH (since yang is looking for people who wouldn’t be on polls showing up) but while we’ve been sitting here, it’s moved to 93 (I bought a bit of this earlier today so it wasn’t me just now)
That was me, bought 473 shares in the 89-91 range.
Probably not going to load up too much more yet, I’m spreading it across a few things - trying to increase my Pete IA position, IA margin of victory <1% seems like a free few percent but it may take too long to resolve and get me trapped in the position so I won’t max out, and there’s a free 2% available on Hillary NO at 98c running by the end of the month, but I don’t think I want to tie it up that long.
How confident are we that Bernie’s going to be the democratic nominee?
Looks like I may be in Yang NO on qualifying for a while. Yang and Bernie markets have a similar dynamic to the Trump markets or like Comey/McCabe/Hillary/etc charged markets. You have enough just all or nothing supporters on the site to keep them out of whack until it’s brutally obvious. I was hoping to hold Yang NO for a bit and sell, but it looks like I may have to ride it out til the others walk out on the debate stage and his people give up lol…
I don’t have a strong opinion on the market being out of whack on PredictIt right now, I’ll put it that way. They’ve got him at 44 cents and I think that’s pretty close.
Trump to win popular vote has me pretty shook. I nearly max bet No at 73 and was just able to buy up a few more shares at 58.
well 58’s ridiculous but so far a libertarian isn’t running and neither is mcmullan and well where are those votes going?, third party might run, etc. He has a path.
Predictit has made me question my sanity a number of times.
McCabe market is spiking for some reason.
There’s massive insider trading.
So you’re saying they’re going to charge McCabe soon and insiders are getting their bets in?
It’ll be fun to watch McCabe and other dissidents get their “fair trial” with witnesses and everything.
I misspoke, there’s massive market manipulation is more accurate.
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It happened really bad in the hillary for president market. It’s still happening a little but there’s fewer nutbags to fuel it now.
The fact hillary’s still floating at 11-14c is mind boggling to me.
It does product great fanfic from time to time though:
It’s impossible to win on this site unless you know something everyone else doesn’t.
How is my understanding of Hillary Clinton? Probably above and beyond everyone else and everything else.
The first time I met Hillary was over 40 years ago. I knew she was determined to be President then and she knew that I knew.
I’m not going to lie. It was scary to meet Hillary even back in 79.
The Clinton’s had less patience back then. Some people got in the way and the next day they were in a terrible accident.
This was back when I was still a Democrat of course. A very close childhood friend of mine tried to the right thing. He believed in the system and it cost him his life.
I knew who she was on the inside and she knew that I knew. You are damn right I ran underground.
I had start over, take a new name, new town, new life.
I literally left everything behind. It was better than ending up dead.
Even though it was decades ago, I can’t ever go back. I never saw my mother again. She died 8 years ago.
Hillary doesn’t just give up. She is going to get what she wants. If people have to die well then the ends justify the means. She’s not going to stop. The entire planet will be destroyed if that’s what it takes.
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I guess it’s Bernie Bros voting for Trump in protest + stay at home DGAF + US version Brexit.
I guess? But I don’t see why that would happen more than it happened in 2016. But again trying to logic through what is going through the minds of people on predictit is insanity itself.
I’d probably take a little on Pete for NH at 20c. 538’s prediction is that he wins 30% of the time. I feel like a multi-way race like this is extremely volatile, so I’m betting on the side of uncertainty if I think it’s a close call.
If anyone is inclined to do that it’s probably better to buy Sanders for second place I guess. 17c right now.
I agree with both of those. I’m just letting it ride with the Pete I bought at 33c the other day after the poll showing him in the lead dropped, I feel like 70-30 Bernie is reasonable, so the play is to buy Pete right now… I also feel like Bernie is overvalued on PI for a lot of the same reasons Trump/Q stuff usually is, so unfortunately I think it’s tough to find profitable Bernie investments right now.
My personal take is Pete wins here almost never. He hasn’t polled much within the MOE. Bernie should have a ground game advantage and Pete didn’t come close to winning the actual voting in Iowa which should have been a much softer spot for him. I also think this was a very very bad Twitter cycle for Pete. I am biased though as I am nearly maxed out from a few days back when Bernie was at 70.
Actually considering selling here at 82 and taking profit though because anything is possible.