Example?
**[quote=“ChrisV, post:786, topic:248, full:true”]
I could see him winning Florida at this point for sure. Biden might be totally cooked by then and who else is going to win it? Too many olds for Sanders, surely. Buttigieg? Only if he’s leading the race at that point which doesn’t seem likely.
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NY and FL are kind of late in the game. Hard to see him even staying in that long after Super Tuesday.
He has infinite money. He can stay in as long as he likes. His goal isn’t so much to win as to prevent Bernie winning.
He’s mostly only giving bernie a shot to win states he never would’ve otherwise and torpedoing biden.
Not if Biden is dead anyway. Like I think if the polling says that staying in is bad for Bernie, he’ll do that, and if it says staying in is good for Bernie, he’ll drop out.
don’t think this makes a difference. Steyer ain’t running a thousand ads in SC to hurt bernie. I dont’ think bloom is running to hurt bernie. I think they’re running cause they saw an opening/their yes men said sure you can win! (though bloom has stated he’s just fine if it ends up being a bunch of $ spent against trump)
PSA to sell the will the senate convict trump on impeachment money since it doesn’t resolve until 1/20/21. Put it at 97 and hope it goes soon I guess. No reason to give up at 94 or 5 though I think–someone’s gonna take the free money even though it doesn’t make financial sense on this site to do that.
Bovada has some juicy lines relative to Predictit and others, presumably because their customer base is dumb republicans (it is the squarest book ever).
Bernie nominee +140 (I loaded up) and POTUS +450! Also, Democrats win 2020 POTUS +130.
Is there any reason to not just max Bernie in NH? His loss scenario is basically riggage only right?
He’s not a big favorite over Pete. Not much different than IA but independents can vote in NH’s.
Edit and independents favor Pete why?
I edited it in basically. Polls are roughly +5. Like Iowa, bernie seems a little too high in the markets to me; even though he’s obviously the favorite.
Do whatever you want though, I have Bern at like 39 (sigh at not maxing this) so I’m debating selling out or just holding with my Pete backup stuff.
Pete would get most of the never trump people that left the GOP.
I mean isn’t the ground game difference alone going to be bigger in NH than IA? Also Bernie won the actual voting in IA by 4% or so right?
That’s a good point, pete had a very strong ground game in Iowa.
Bloomberg market has me completely shook right now. Maybe I dun goofed.
Meh bloomer. We’ll see what happens in the debate tomorrow right.
omg I was staring at 50 or so to get out and didn’t pull the whole trigger and now it’s low 40’s ffs.
I don’t know what to do tbh. Guess wish I got more bloom <5 stuff than I did. It wasn’t enough to offset elsewhere.
Yeah, he’s polling in third place nationally–if biden falls, he’s going to do some damage somewhere.
God, I pulled the trigger shorting him at like mid 20s and now I can’t tell if I’m dumb because I got in way too soon or dumb because he about to do it. Kinda want to get in on him winning it outright at .20 right now.
I think if it does become Bernie v. Bloomberg HU the contrast will be very stark. We will have one side saying billionaires are the problem (which is a very popular position within the dem constituency vs. literally the 5th richest guy on earth or whatever. I don’t see Bloomberg winning although maybe insane ad spending gets it done who knows.
He can very easily lose. He was +4 and +6 in recent polls, with Biden polling 17% in the +4 poll. If we see a last-minute collapse of Biden support like we saw in Iowa, those votes could break for Pete. Voters are still very much making up their minds. 4 points is not very much. I think the market’s pricing is roughly fair, I probably even bet Pete if you made me bet something gun to head.
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