Fair chance more people think he’s the only dem running for president vs knowing who’s leading the dem nomination at super tuesday. There’s a lot of even dem voters who haven’t paid any attention at all.
Just now opening up this thread for the first time in months, but Silver’s tweet here didn’t age all that well! And to the extent that it did, it’s only because he underestimated Sanders, lol.
What? I don’t think you are reading that tweet right. It seems Nate was spot on there.
I don’t think Nate’s point was that Bernie was too low, and Bernie was at 15 then.
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That’s likely.
I was reading it less that Nate was saying Bernie was undervalued, but thought that people were crazy for thinking Bloomberg was even a contender. And now Bloomy is gonna be in debates and all.
Basically, I was reading it like "it’s ridiculous that people think Bloomberg is anywhere close to a first-tier candidate. And here we are and I believe Bloomberg is one of only three left in double digits.
But I don’t follow this stuff much or really understand it, so I probably totally misread the tweet and shouldn’t have commented on it.
some money out there imo with people overreacting to Iowa atm. Pete getting bounced up a little too high, Biden got punished too far but it’s still a little scary because he’s not winning NH either.
Problem for Biden is that it looks like the theory that when people started paying attention they would dump him is correct, he’s a placeholder candidate. The last poll in Texas he was only +2 on Sanders. I’d be very nervous holding him going into Super Tuesday after losses in NH and NV, with Buttigieg probably posting decent results in both states and Bloomberg hanging over him, just hard to imagine him staging some huge comeback then.
Edit: I think the top 5 are all pretty fairly priced tbh, Buttigieg’s bounce was big in relative terms but not that big in absolute terms, he’s priced as a 1 in 7 shot which seems fair.
Honestly I could just see PI saying fuck it, we’re refunding this entire market (IA winner).
Sweet Christmas, he’s at 0.40
Lol efficient markets
Haha, all the grifters are hyping Bloomberg for some damn reason.
https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1224585636839141383?s=21
F me, I went all-in shorting him when he was at like 0.23 and I thought I was a smart guy.
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Not a chance.
I’m so tempted to buy Bernie Iowa here at .67. Anyone else?
Considering it’s literally in the party’s hands, I don’t know
Reasonable point. With Bernie’s numbers at 60% reporting, I got it at .70.
It’s most delegates and Pete wins the tiebreaker. I wouldn’t go above 70 with any data release.
I believe Bernie wins the vote tally though.
bloom over 20 in a bunch of super tuesday states right now but 40 for any one of them. Oh PI never change.
Biden seems oversold, this result seemed pretty much expected? I guess wait until he also gets 3rd/4th in NH and buy in the low teens hoping for a quick flip after NV/SC?
Maxed out Trump not winning Pop vote at 34. A little too much democratic fear going on right now to declare Trump Lord and Almighty.
I think the race is pretty much over already…but the popular vote, ffs.