in fade nate silver because he’s a moron news, boy this did not age well from 9 days ago.
Bernie up 17 cents a share, everyone else down to some degree. (warren dropped by about 40%)
Amy’s down 50% despite polls from nothing before; I actually think 5/6 is about right rather than it’s current 2.
I’m tempted to YOLO the whole damn amount just from the epic payoff possibility but I’ve already lost enough seriously believing Pete at like 15. Did I sell all of it at 30? NOOOO.
He’s comparing betting markets to polls. His tweet is straightforward. He didn’t predict where the betting market would go. He simply highlighted the difference.
No, he’s not predicting the market future but it’s so obvious in that tweet he’s slamming the market there I don’t know how else to respond to this. Tone, everything about it.
anyway, this week in IA–will biden fall apart due to 2 GOP lite midwesterners that people actually like better instead–or will Iowa go damnit and pick biden simply because they don’t actually like Bernie that much?
Nate gets crushed by the market. I’d go so far to say one of his biggest weaknesses going back to just after his Pecota days was his inability (or reluctance) to reasonability check his models versus the market. (Trump primary 2016, Brazil 70 pct to win world cup before first game, etc). He does a decent enough job aggregating data but really adds no value beyond collecting and summarizing it. He’s (cleverly?) worked in last minute real-time model adjustments so he can look less bad when his 99.9 pct lock drops to 60 pct based off early exit polling. This let’s him rewrite history to shoe his model wasn’t that wrong and being able to claim he saw the writing on the wall before anyone else (Bernie in Michigan primary, Trump in general), despite the markets showing these outcomes were not the extreme outlier results his model said they were all along. To be fair, he did convert his efforts into popularity and a sweet paid shill role, so good for him.
I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that it’s a guilty pleasure seeing Nate Cohn constantly dunk on Silver with real poll analysis.
Uh that’s a very revisionist account of what happened in the general, where Silver’s model closed with Clinton 70 something percent and Cohn at 95 percent or something and slow to react on the day as the bad news came in. Silver took heat before the election for how relatively high he put Trump’s chances. I think presidential general elections is the one thing he’s been consistently good at and whenever he’s tried to branch out into other things it’s been awful (the party decides/the “Endorsement Primary”, trying to model soccer, terrible punditry, etc etc).
I’ll take the L on that one. I thought he was very dismissive of Trump’s odds until the final days, but could be recollecting wrong and trust your word on it.
even house of cards didn’t try to rig every state. Yeah, there’s a few things I can think of he might do that would work on some voters but it just seems that line is too far off. I don’t know old people though, maybe literally all of them think the dems are the real problem here.
I think predictit is overreacting to Bloomberg being in the February debate. He’s still conceding all the early states, and it will be hard to turn around whatever media narrative comes out of the early states.
They’re expecting biden to collapse and bloomberg then is the candidate vs bernie. Basically the biden gets 4th in IA/NH (very possible with KLOB now) and barely wins SC scenario.
22% to win nomination, 35% to win a primary now
I’m figuring at some point they’ll figure out he was a republican not long ago but who knows, he’s got all the ads and nobody’s criticized him yet.
the same idiots who still have hillary clinton 11c to run for president.
even the POTUS market, Hillary and Yang are ahead of Warren. like who are these idiots. Yang’s probably done in a week.
