HODL
We can figure this out when we get there I guess, but any thought on how we want to handle there being two charges / two votes?
Should we just treat it like we’re running it twice?
Yeah I’m sure we can figure it out but seems really unlikely to me that there would be a split on the 2 votes is my guess.
I tend to agree but I’ve heard rumors of Manchin splitting his vote. Anyway, I prob lose in both scenarios regardless.
I can absolutely see Manchin and Jones splitting votes. Maybe even someone like Romney.
Jones sounds like he’s voting to convict on both. Manchin doesn’t seem so firm. Unless by some miracle the vote actually matters, Manchin probably splits votes so he can play both sides.
Lol Romney to convict up double figures today
Still more bolton NO scenarios than yes ones for me, but we’ll see. (yes, I’m NO) Maybe I’m way wrong, I guess they could just have bolton/a biden and then sweep it all under the rug asap like kav. NO case seems to be counting more on exec privilege so then it all gets delayed in the courts.
bloomberg up to 15 to win the dem nom, line still hasn’t moved really for a single primary. I knew I bet no on him too soon. I guess i get it, if biden totally falls off, I guess biden voters start voting for him in that lane but I can’t see value of that being anywhere near there yet.
Yang clearly ahead of warren (and pres market too) which is so f’ing stupid.
Bernie nearly 25 to win south carolina, that might be 50 by the time that primary rolls up if he sweeps first three–which I will be on the other side of and probably lose it all cause lol me.
in silly Predictit odds news
Yang to win dem nomination NO 93
Yang to win ONE primary for dem nomination NO 92
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I admit I’m gonna be a bit tilted if Bolton yes wins despite all the damn hoops it had to jump through to get there. There’s still three huge hoops for yes to get there in this market ffs.
(they still have to vote to subpoena him, it has to be in public, AND it has to happen by the deadline)
that said–looks like R’s are now leaning toward all or nothing on witnesses; so my instinct to pile $ on joe biden YES was actually one I probably should’ve.
Bloomberg at .26 to win a primary?!?
I don’t think the deadline is much of an issue, but you never know. It’d be horrible optics for the GOP to do it in private, so I didn’t even consider that too much. It’s the votes… And I’ve always felt like they were going to have the 4 votes, for the reasons I’ve already laid out. If you’re positioning yourself as a moderate, “I bucked the rest of the party to vote for witnesses, because I wanted all the facts. Upon hearing all the facts, I had no choice but to acquit…” is probably your best chance at re-election in a place like Maine or Colorado.
14% to win nomination is worse than the primary thing, but I think yang’s numbers are pretty close both ways.
I think Bernie is still overvalued in the markets but if biden ukraine stays in the news or biden keeps telling people not to vote for him, then it’s not so lol I guess.
Did you like Hillary at 10%?
Predictit is now bringing you Michelle Obama 8% to run for president.
Oprah at 6%
Kasich at 11% seems ridiculous to me as well.
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.28 now, gonna rise to like 40 if bernie kills biden in Iowa
These are good deals, but I miss the batshit crazy Qanon markets of 2019.
comey 12, brennan 11, mccabe 17
still alive
hell barr charging himself was 11 at one point recently
If Biden loses the first 3 states the race will become Bloomberg vs Bernie, I can kinda see the logic behind that market price
Biden only has a realistic chance in Nevada to win a state of the first 3. He is probably 75% to lose all 3.
He also could spend his way to winning a state simply because he’s spent hundreds of millions on TV ads. Like Florida. He’s in 2nd place there in the polls–already approaching 20%.
Steyer might well get delegates in SC or NV despite nobody actually voting for him elsewhere. Bloomberg’s almost certain to get delegates now.
538’s model where he’s <1% looks like a fat sack of garbage to me, billionaires often win elections in this country simply by outspending everyone else. (I’m in IL, I’ve seen this literally in back to back gov elections from each party in the nomination phase)
(oh and yes I’m still betting against him, I just don’t see it being OMG FREE MONEY) because of the billionaire thing, not the NYC mayor trying to win FL thing, LOL at that.