It’s not too complicated. Contracts trade for an amount of cents, which is equivalent to a percentage chance of the thing happening. So Sanders right now is trading at 30c for the nomination, which means the market thinks there’s a 30% chance of that happening. You want to buy that if you think it’s higher and sell it if you think it’s lower. The amount you can invest in any one contract is limited to $850, but you can buy multiple contracts in one market (for example, in the market “will Trump win the popular vote” you can both sell Yes for $850 and buy No for $850). Fees are 10% of your profit when contracts resolve plus a 5% withdrawal fee, so take that into account when deciding if a trade is profitable. You also want to take into account how long your money will be tied up.
No on Bloomberg to win any primary @ 78c seems like a good buy.
I actually sold as much as I could at 80 because for some reason the dem market is going the other way (88 last I checked). That said, it’s probably not 90 to not win a state as he’s got a shot in NY, he can buy a state really if he wanted.
btw, there’s a new COMEY IS GETTING INVESTIGATED article from NYT so hopefully shares keep rising. (AND LOL ME FOR NOT HAVING YES SHARES JUST WAITING FOR THIS)
He’s at 7c to win NY currently, and if he doesnt win there, where is he going to win?
I have no idea either, but I’m not his target audience and he’s doing a SB ad. Steyer’s starting to get votes, he has to be polling something somewhere (nationally Mike’s roughly even with Pete overall (ahead of steyer) but nowhere to be found in any state polls as they haven’t done too many super tuesday ones (other than CA but only biden has a chance there in the moderate lane).
edit–seriously I don’t know exactly which super tuesday states he’s actually contending in–national polls keep saying he’s up there at least on the pete tier and pete’s certainly in contention in midwest states–mike’s actually ahead of warren now on predictit.
too high sure but ehhhhhh. I probably bet that one way too soon.
Poached some NO McCabe shares at .15, but I’m keeping some power dry in case there’s another Qanon bump.
I’d say the solution to where Bloomberg’s national numbers are coming from is that he has a bunch of support from rich Democrats on the coasts. There are a lot of people in those areas so if you have like 10% support it can get you a nice national number, but you’re still not winning any primaries.
Having thought about it more though, I wouldn’t take the no-primaries bet, because it has the substantial risk that Biden strokes out on stage and Bloomberg manages to assume the position of establishment guy. Which I presume is his point in running in the first place. Probably best to stay out of anti-Bloomberg bets given the fragility of Uncle Joe.
in always have some offer in a stupid market news, someone bet up to 14 yes on
will trump switch parties?
This is close but not quite right. In your example you couldn’t get 850x2 you could only get 850 invested by buying no. You can’t sell short shares.
But in markets that are for example, which party will control the Senate after 2020? You could both buy $850 Yes Rep and $850 No Dem, and effectively get $1700 down on the same outcome.
Does anybody know how the RCP daily Trump approval average is calculated? Like is it the last x number if qualifying polls? The polls from the last x number of days?
I put some money on predictit finally and it feels like these markets might be soft just on the basis that people aren’t good at math.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
The problem with these is figuring out which polls will get added/dropped from their calculations by the end date. It’s a little soft because too many people assume the number they’re staring at or have the standard incorrect thinking (that even many nerds have) that up/down will continue to head that direction–but it’s a fair bit of guesswork prediction.
They also only take the newest poll from a pollster, so even if you assume X, if they drop a new poll on the deadline it’s gone for the new one.
if you click it’ll show you the ones counting are in gray and the ones that don’t are white at the current time
that all said, volume is so low I barely even look at these if at all myself. Like even if you beat people to it, you are lucky to get 100 shares, the 44.4% column (current # is 44.3) outstanding shares right now with 3 days left–1 share at 24, 75 @33, 1 at 35, 1 at 37, 2 at 45, 6 at 50. Then a jump to 64. Not gonna get rich here. The current number at 44.3 is at 40, with the first offer at 60, then 67, then 80. For a combined 40 shares worth.
Best markets right now are betting against whatever just popped up on fox news, or if you’ve got a bead on who will vote yes/no on impeachment or people testifying on it. Stuff like that. Higher the volume, the bigger the edge in my experience here.
The tweet markets for me I mostly bet what I think against a trendline. Though Yang has finally stopped spamtweeting a hundred times a day for some reason.
Everyone assumes NYT is gonna endorse warren but I took a flier on Klob at 5/6 instead. NYT traditionally goes for a centrist type but they don’t seem like they’re picking Biden (attacked him for things in the interview for stuff NYT probably endorsed at the time) and Pete doesn’t seem like their type.
Maybe I"m dumb here and missing out on too much free money, idk.
I would assume Biden gets it. Although Warren getting the nom would trigger an amazing shitshow on the left so maybe they go for that.
Got crushed during the debate. I think my TV feed here is 3-5 seconds behind, and I was heavy on Bernie from about 65 cents on up, and then got crushed and couldn’t get out of it when Warren got that extra back and forth flurry.
I’m very heavy on Bolton to testify, got in for the max bet at 55 cents. I’m also on Hunter Biden to testify at 15 cents, but only a small amount (like $50). I view that likelihood as at least 25 percent, though. We’ve all been counting to 51 as 47 Dems + 4, but if that happens then you start from 53 and try to hold on to get Hunter Biden… I don’t see more than a couple Republican senators peeling off in that scenario. I think the appetite to say, “Okay, you want witnesses? Well fuck you then!” is going to be strong among the GOP.
I’m scared of the “free money” on the charging markets, because I think Barr is enough of a joke to actually bring some ridiculous charges on some of these people, which would then be thrown out in court… So I actually think the fair price on those is in the 5-10 cents range.
I realized during the first debate I watched to never bet against warren talking a lot.
the bolton to testify thing, I’ve only bet against the news dumped the next day so far.
May be an arb opportunity though with bolton NO, hunter biden YES since all but 5 R’s are literal all of them or none of them. (bolton/mulvaney are on schumers list, hunter biden is on theirs) maybe even Joe too for the lols make it a real shit show why not
They don’t have the votes for no witnesses at all right now or they would have very different public statements. They’re just going to see what the trial holds at first and then figure it out I guess.
I’d guess they prefer no witnesses over anyone testifying though.
I’m slowly building No positions on all the different Senate testimony by 3/31 markets.
Susan Collins will do the same bullshit she did with Kavanaugh and ultimately fall in line. Even if someone finds the balls to be the deciding vote to call witnesses (they won’t), I’m sure Trump can muster up some more legal stall tactics and executive privilege claims that could very likely drag beyond 3/31.
in example #150000132 they need to ban comments, if nothing else klob got to 30 in the NYT market.
we’ll find out in an hour whether it was yet another amazing troll job on suckers or insider trading again.
It could be either. I’m blowing my last $0.14 on Biden just for funsies.
either way, kudos to NYT without a wagering market I wouldn’t have looked at this once and now I’m like actually wasting a little of my time trying to beat a fuckton of people on predictit which is’nt gonna happen for me–lol.
I would’ve definitely sold a bunch of it at 30 if I stopped taking fliers and put in a REAL ALPHA AMOUNT. instead (already down to 20).
The most amazing thing about this market is that Hillary isn’t at 0.06 or so.