that’s because she isn’t listed but even YANG is at 1/N/A
The YangGang guys understand that he’s an outsider, that’s a part of his mythos. Even the delusional Yang stans are not going to bet on him getting an NYT endorsement.
of course predictit rules didn’t think of putting in a tiebreaker so all hell is breaking loose.
edit–klob WON, everyone else loses they went 'lol we have a standard tiebreaker sure we didn’t put it here but suck it"
edit2–man, it’s fun being right but I legit probably could’ve gotten down like 3 or 400 at 5-6% on this. Shit.
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also this is the second time insiders have moved a giant line one direction while I’m looking at it and I didn’t pile on it. I’m so bad at this. Steyer 2% to make debate (I wasn’t here when he ran that was another one) and now Klob here.
Not enough lols for Nate putting the odds of the NYT endorsing Bernie as shorter than Klob.
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Like the chances of that were literally 0%, 8:1? What the fuck is he smoking?
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predictit never got above 5 for him and that was with super low volume where one dude with $20 could’ve probably gotten it to 10:1. If you didn’t do research than maybe you got it that high, assuming they wanted to pick a major candidate.
I hope a lot of the bigger winners on the site had warren YES and lost for my own personal laugh at them.
So I buy Bolton to testify for the max at 55 cents, and put a small wager on Hunter Biden to testify at like 15 cents or whatever. Bolton now down to 37 cents, and as far as I know, nothing has changed that would impact this probability whatsoever, unless I totally missed a major news story.
Best part, Hunter Biden hasn’t budged at all. Like, these probabilities should obviously be linked. The GOP isn’t going to be like “Yes, we think there should be witnesses, but only the Bidens.” The only way we get the Hunter Biden outcome is if the GOP loses 4 votes on witnesses in general, then decides to hit back. So there should be correlated movements…
But LOL at me trying to make sense of PredictIt.
How far and fast did the line move?
Went from single digits straight up to 30 or so pretty quick. That move was certainly some people on the inside or who knew somebody. Then it fizzled back down to 20. then back up. The comments section is nuts, seems certain about half the people who insisted it was just trolls and not inside shit were buying YES and angleshooting. Imagine being such a piece of shit you have to angleshoot. Pathetic garbage people.
To bad there’s not a ‘Senate will acquit Trump before x, between x and y, between y and z, after z/ never’ type market.
I feel like there’d be some money to be made from the poor naive souls who don’t yet realize Trump will be acquitted within 2 weeks and probably by this time next week.
Impeachment trial might still have witnesses for a week (see, bolton/mulvaney/maybe a biden) but yeah the whole shrewdness of trying to fit in a similar timeframe to clinton with a lot less time in the media cycle is like man, this is gonna be done and over super fast isn’t it.
FURIOUS at myself for not realizing that the Bolton to testify market would crater today with these votes that are mostly symbolic/meaningless. Could have had it for .28 to .30 instead of .55.
Uggggggggggggggggggggggggggh
Who’s more foolish, the PredictIt fools or the fools who fail to account for the foolish behavior even after repeat exposure to it?
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Also somehow Hunter Biden to testify is up even though Bolton is down, which is hilarious to me. They should clearly be correlated IMO.
Definitely suggest people look at buying Bolton Yes right now. I don’t know how likely he is to testify but I think it’s definitely way over 29%. I read nothing into these votes today, they’re just good politics by Schumer to start putting pressure on.
Guess I don’t see why MM will bow to any of this and do anything the dems want here… 29% seems fine-ish? What am I missing?
The vote will happen, McConnell can’t block it. There has been quite a bit of reporting that would indicate that Romney, Collins, Murkowski and Alexander are likely to vote for witnesses. I think Gardner probably will, personally.
I think if it gets to 50-50 there’s even a chance the tie is broken by Chief Justice Roberts.
I think these Republican senators who like to appear moderate want to be able to say something like, “I voted for witnesses because the process matters and I wanted to hear all of the evidence, but upon doing so and carefully deliberating, I decided that the behavior in question, while perhaps unethical, did not rise to the level of impeachment.”
That’s pretty much the most Susan Collins play ever.
Oh right the vote will happen regardless of what mitch wants yeah I could see that.
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The Flake Gambit