Yea I’m not touching those markets at those prices and that long to wait. A few Barr comments and those could quickly go to the 60s. It’s obvious Barr desperately wants to bring some charge against some known name as red meat for the cult but can’t find a way yet.
Now I’m making myself want to buy yes’s to sell on the next rumor.
Anyone know how long PI typically takes with withdrawals?
I don’t have the stones to do that but I’m sure some did.
guess brag that I had pompeo not running at 50 NO but only 60 bucks :( Sold out of it, (got the correlating markets before everyone else did for a little bit more (ie literally everything I could under 60 for Kobach Yes and a small amount in the KS senate for dems)) trying to clear up some cap so I can beat everyone to the punch after Iowa results.
It’s days not weeks. Mine was so fast I didn’t even notice it.
That was fast.
I’m out of all PI contracts unless I can’t sell. I went hard on the idea Trump was a lock to lose, but no longer believe that. Hopefully I’m kicking myself in a year, but even then the few $k don’t feel worth the stress.
I still think NO on the popular vote is free money, but I’m trying to pay less attention to this shit and so I gave that up too.
Feels like a relief. My plays are just one minuscule datapoint, but there they are. Did sell green on Hillary running, so heyyyyyy…
Hillary running is still kinda free money at .07, but yeah, I think all the sheep have been fleeced.
They’re still there but they require news to tell them things and their news has dropped the hillary shit.
so far the Yang tweet market is literally bet the over every time, profit because he’s a spambot
there’s also several markets with a 4% spread somehow (ie if you could bet no/no = 4% free money)
Steyer just went from 98 not making the debate to like 22 no.
I sold out of all of that an hour ago when I saw the impeachment could start next week news but that still doesn’t make steyer a massive favorite unless all debates and qualifications for them are shoved back 3 weeks. But they probably have insiders since people said the steyer to run for president market did.
lol, this is wild. I just bought $20 of NO at .40. Seems like a pump.
I made a guess that nobody has insider access to two polls and bet hard on NO but what do I know and now I have a pretty big red arrow lol me maybe? I’ll have either won hard or gotten owned hard in about 24 hours.
I don’t know whether this started inside info or that fake polling twitter account (which did post steyer was going to make it).
OK wtf, either this is real or Debate Tracker on Twitter just got punked.
I was wrong, dump it now
SC/NV dumped polls Steyer easily made it. From fox news on both, that’s why people had insider info
One of these days I’m gonna learn it’s ALWAYS insider information.
OK, Nate Silver says it’s legit. LOL, goodbye $20, I overthought that one.
I lost more, same, I just didn’t believe someone would have insider information to two polls but fox just did. I could’ve followed it instead and made money but nope. That was a hard lesson to learn sigh.
I posted the poll links in the iowa debate market, lol @ all those ads working btw.
At least I got a good laugh. Also, interesting to learn there really is a whole lot of insider trading going on.
Outside of the obvious ones; I’m completely avoiding the debate markets from now on. I can’t compete with insider shit.
Steyer isn’t listed in the predictit presidential market.
Steyer was 2% yes at some point in the last 24 hours, kudos whoever that guy was.
Bernie dipped 10c in NH on the heels of a new poll that had PB on top, which imjosh highlighted in the dem2020 thread. If you’re long and buying dips, seems like a decent spot.
Monmouth only underestimated Bernie’s margin by 12 points in 2016. I’m sure they adjusted their methodology this time around though.
Bernie had a bunch of “anyone but hillary” voters. They are spread out more or less now (tulsi, yang, etc).
That said, he should get a small bump from winning the Iowa caucus as his voters are less likely to leave after a few minutes because of other shit to do. (if he’s in a clusterfuck tie in the polls then he’s the favorite as predictit has noted)
That said, I think Bernie is a bit overvalued overall atm but it really depends on Iowa which way the line is going to overshift. Though if it’s biden the race is basically over.
Biden is slightly undervalued in the dem market despite a bit of a slide. He’s that strong in the south still.
what states have bloomberg been running ads in? He’s gonna be steyer #'s somewhere.
The bloomberg/steyer strategies have never worked but nobody’s ever had a billion to blow on attempting it before.
With Yang out of the next debate, Steyer is probably free money for least speaking time.
I’ve never bet on politics before, but I’m thinking about playing around to put some productive use to the fact that I spend too much time paying attention to politics. Are there any good primers or anything explaining predict-it and the general function of their system?