Because…what?
He couldn’t get the popular vote vs. Hillary, he’s not any more popular now, some of the olds have died off in the past four years. I don’t see how even Biden fails to win the popular vote.
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For sure, but nationalism is gaining some serious strength. Boris completely annihilated his opponent and Trump is 49% to win the general almost a year out.
eh, there will be more nonsense up on fox news and predictit at the same time at some point in 2020. also every stupid thing qanon pushes someone’s gonna try to get a market on PI for it.
US is way more diverse than UK is for starters. Trump basically needs a third party to get the pop vote.
Yeah I don’t see 20-30 either right now. Still a little bit of value if you think warren implodes like everyone else does (in the state markets, not the nom/presidential, where she’s somehow behind yang). The against mayor pete in the south has mostly dried up unfortunately.
One of the low %'s I think has a real shot though but losing the max is killer for ROI on this site so maybe I’ll just try a flier.
I mean, I’m playing a bit of devil’s advocate here for the other side of this trade but it can be pretty incredible to see the dramatic shifts in trends in such a short time frame when you look at both the US elections of the last 40 years and abroad.
Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million against one of the least popular candidates in history. Dems went on to win the popular vote in the House midterms by TEN MILLION VOTES. The percentage of people who explicitly disapprove of Trump as a President is easily over 50% and has been for basically his whole term. Most of these people have set opinions, it’s hard to see what could change their minds. People in the liberal states hate Trump and will probably be even more mobilised to vote than they were in the midterms.
A shift of the magnitude you’re proposing borders on inconceivable. A serious terrorist attack would not do it. It would probably have to involve the Dem candidate getting busted for child porn on the eve of the election or something. If there were somehow a way to know, I would bet my net worth at even money that true odds are less than 5%.
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Plenty of times POTUS got killed in midterms but won re-election over here. He’s still got a lot of things he can do to get there as he has no principles. If all our cities get blown up, that’s just less votes for dems!
Yes his pop vote odds certainly are nowhere near 25. I gave it 10 but that’s because I can think of a lot of shit that could turn enough people. Hopefully they are not.
I won’t say it’s free money, but it’s def .15-.10 overpriced imo.
I’m not advocating that it’s a buy at this price.
I’m expressing the opinion that the bolded, based on “reasons” may be a bit overrated. Again, we still have a 73 year old impeached sociopath man-baby crushing the field.
To dumb it down, the lesser informed are more easily manipulatable than was previously thought imo - and that there are more of those.
Fly made a post a while ago that I agree with stating that white nationalism isn’t limited to white people. Hispanics and blacks can be “so-called” white nationalists as well. Anyways, relax im done.
I mean you can always just handwave and say “yes but what if people change their minds” but there’s zero evidence for your thesis that people will easily change their minds on Trump. His level of support has been extremely consistent over his entire term. All the evidence is that not many people are changing their minds about him regardless of what happens. He kills al-Baghdadi, no movement. He gets impeached, no movement.
In polls a majority of registered voters say they are “certain” not to vote for Trump in the 2020 election, including majorities of both those certain to vote and those less likely to vote. The votes are simply not there for him to win in a positive sense. You can theorize about low Dem turnout, but all signs point to a motivated Dem base and we already had the election “Trump v Least popular Dem candidate of all time” and Trump lost it by 3 million votes.
Even if you told me Trump was definitely going to overperform his popular vote percentage from last time, something which is unlikely for all the reasons given, I would still not think he was 25% to make up that 3 million vote gap.
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Dvaut had an interesting post about how the definition of “white nationals” has expanded throughout history to include Catholics, Germans, Italians, etc. It’s not crazy to imagine this expanding to also include white Hispanics. Actually there’s a prominent white nationalist by the name of Fuentes out there. Then you’ve got guys like George Zimmerman who will stan for Republicans. I’m a little skeptical that this will happen, but it’s not impossible imo.
I’ve met a few Hispanics who have a very conservative stance on immigration. Basically, “FU I got mine, why don’t you come in the right way like my parents did.” Democrats are in serious jeopardy of having Republicans poach the Hispanic vote if they can’t come up with a message for this voting block that’s more than just being pro-immigration.
Anyway, I appreciate your posting so I hope we aren’t chasing you off.
Of course not. I was just done with the discussion. I was digging a little for some intelligent opinions on this trade and 22 is lacking a bit for info on stuff like this right now.
My first opinion was that it should be at like 6% but its trading at 4x that. I try to assume that when something seems that far off or “free money” that the problem may lay with me but this is predictit so who knows.
Someone hammered way hard warren no’s in state markets today. So hard that insider trading is a thought but her dropping out well within range of the lead and the fact that so many voters haven’t even paid attention to anything of the race yet makes no sense at all. If this was a smarter clientele I’d have followed it but there’s so many morons weird shit like this happens when it’s just a moron being a moron all the time.
The yang markets have started to collapse with today’s polling revealing his numbers haven’t changed. Sad!
new markets up, your favorite comey/hillary/brennan/mccabe charges by jun 30. Unfortunately I only got 10 shares at 85. It’s 93 NO already at best. sad!
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just wait for some kooky conspiracy to come out and the yes’s will spike, lots of soft stupid money on that site.
Sad that all the fish left the pond. I’ll keep my eye, maybe some Qanon rumor will boost the price