It’s starting to get into wtf territory for all these x charged by 12/31 markets that still haven’t settled. It’s now beyond the ‘they just haven’t gotten to it yet’ territory. If this drags on for some insane technicality, I’m going to be pissed. I’m maxed on Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and McCabe.
if you want to scare yourself, see how poorly they handled the netanyahu indictment. It settled to “no.”
by their rules it was the correct ruling. The broken convention market right now is just like this–you have to read the damn rules.
I didn’t follow that market but I just can’t see where there’s any wiggle room n these markets.
“shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before December 31, 2019 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).”
12/31 is passed and it hasn’t been publicly confirmed. Even if we find out tomorrow they were all charged a month ago, it should still resolve no.
Wouldn’t surprise me if it dragged on a little given it’s court stuff.
Predicit is always like this, slow as fuck to pay out for no reason. Pretty shady iyam.
They were actually too early to pay out in one market.
idk either, my main guess is there are few people working in predictit so things with a market of the size those ones had take a bit of time.
The other guess is worse and possibly also true–they’re run a bit like full tilt so they can’t have mass withdrawals at once.
I mean seriously wtf. These markets are absolutely crystal clear. Is there a q freak making the calls at PI?
I’m going to write them a nastygram, this is completely unacceptable at this point.
was still handled absolutely poorly, regardless of whether it was the correct decision or not.
Since I can’t personally bet: I’d be taking some Sanders for Dem nominee at this point. Consider: he has the highest favourability among Democrats, with only 18% having an unfavourable view. The most common second choice of Biden supporters is Sanders. The second is Warren, together they pick up half of Biden supporters. I mention this because it’s a useful antidote to the media idea that voters act on a left-right continuum, in fact most voters are non-ideological. Per PredictIt, Sanders is the frontrunner in IA, with a 40% chance to win, is an absolute favourite to win in NH, and is neck and neck with Biden in NV. I might dump him around the time of the SC primary depending on how intractable Biden’s support in the South continues to look, but it seems very likely that his stock will rise in the wake of the first few primaries.
That’s just the sort of average-case scenario, the best-case scenario is that Biden implodes, where it’s difficult to see any other outcome than Sanders becoming the clear frontrunner, in view of the Biden second-choice numbers and the continuing unpopularity of Warren and Buttigieg with minority voters.
they paid out, you can all put the pitchforks down
well the best bet is against Yang for dem nom at 92 (oh it’s 93 now), predictit odds have him at 90/91 NO just to win a single primary. He’s a huge dog to make the debate. (obviously hillary but 96 might not be worth bothering at this point with the time left in the market)
Bernie seems overvalued to me though. (except in vermont, because he’s a lock) The buy guys to sell them later thing is more dangerous but I’m already a bit on the amy/pete train there.
Biden is way undervalued if you took the state markets seriously since he’s already 70+ in so many of them. Guess I’m mostly just waiting for Iowa and hoping he comes in poorly then hammering the south for him hard.
Mostly hoping now for a qualifying poll to come out and betting against whoever hit it.
Not much out there atm with everyone parking their gains again though
I couldn’t take it any more and bought no on pop vote at $.75 because yeah
never mind you can get yang 94 NO for POTUS right now. Which I would have if I wasn’t gonna be betting against trump, aka lighting $ on fire because who doesn’t love a good war in this country.
Also good ones if they weren’t irrelevant due to fees–Brown/Gabbard no for VP at 96 or so (would be stupid as fuck to give up a senate seat for VP, and well would even bernie nominate tulsi as vp at this point)
Wonder if there’ll be some Iran markets opening. US boots on the ground in Iran in 2020, Iran gets off a nuclear bomb/test would be interesting, should be some other ones too I can’t think of.
Do you work at mybookie? Limits are terrible (10 bucks? GTFO) but they have a bunch of these up.
which terrorist gets got next and I don’t know who any of those people are. 98% random muslim generating names I think.
I had to brag about this score. Thank you, Qanon:
I don’t know that we’ll ever see markets as crazy as 2019. Aside from the “will Trump win the popular vote?”, the only free money I see now is shorting the Yang markets for ~10% return at best. Gone are the days of 20-30% free money propositions, unless maybe they start up indictment markets again.
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Thanks qtards!
Makes me warm and fuzzy
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Why do you think a 25% chance for Trump winning the popular vote is too high?