man my intuition is saying trump no popular vote at $.73 is free money but I think I’m going to wait for a “big win” like senate acquittal. No chance he gets pop vote imo.
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It’s the big obvious wager going on right now after the hillary tank but the more I think about it I kinda want to give it something ridic like 10%–any third party runner helps him quite a bit, spite votes (especially if say bernie doesn’t win).
The asian caricature guy? Yea it’s clearly him. Why does he keep coming back under different accounts? Is he getting banned ?
Either way he’s clearly multiaccounting and has probably abused it, he needs to get gone for good. It’s why I’m no longer participating on that site, too shady.
What does “participate” mean? Obviously posting on their forums is awful but there’s plenty of opportunity to pick up free money/free catharticism.
In markets that are being gamed/manipulated I see no reason to put a dime into that site. Especially after how poorly handled the netanyahu wager was. The hillary market was definitely being manipulated by multi-accounters. And nothing afaik was done about it. That’s enough to get me off of the site.
Dude, no, it’s not even going to be close, third party or no third party. There’s going to be an unholy amount of running up the score going on in places like NY and CA. For example, if Sanders is the nominee and Bloomberg or some freak like that runs third party, in 2016 in CA there was a 1.3% higher vote for the Green Party than in 2012, plus another 0.56% wrote in Bernie. Those votes are all coming home to the Dems if Sanders is the nominee, turnout will be gigantic in CA, that will offset any third-party effect.
There’s a lot of dem voters that will have a hard time voting sanders too. Trump is polling in CA a bit better than the 16 results atm for whatever reasons.
There are some out there that seriously think he’ll actually win more EV’s than in 16.
There’s a path for Trump to get there and we’ve started to see it (his approval rating is going slightly back up for one).
More EVs than 2016 is completely possible, vastly more likely than winning the popular vote. A swing of the size necessary for Trump to win the popular vote, if evenly distributed across the country, would see Trump pick up New Hampshire, Nevada, Minnesota and Maine (and in reality such a swing wouldn’t be evenly distributed and Trump would probably pick up Colorado and Virginia as well). Clinton won NH by less than 3,000 votes, so things would barely need to change for Trump to win more EVs.
well is there a libertarian candidate this go around? That’s a fair # of votes there. You are right they aren’t going to be evenly distributed though.
The thing I can’t square with this, is that the market eventually resolves based on reality and not trading nonsense.
See: netanyahu indictment
Feels like Yang tweet market the over has hit literally every single time and yet still people bet against it for some reason.
I found the old post. Lol @ my logic, thinking a Democratic House was a lock to impeach especially on Mueller. Such innocent times back then.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=54184895&postcount=496
PayPal/Venmo/other?
Paypal works DM me your email or whatever I’ll send it over.
predictit paying out a lot of markets today early to get everyone hosed on taxes reasons
also there’s a hillary end of month market out there but it’s already dead to 98. sad
my bets of the year
impeachment end of year, impeachment by 3/31, impeachment all day every day
bloomberg to miss the debate he had 0% of making
hillary to not run for president (pending)
hillary to not win dem nom @ 90
everywhere hillary to not win a state that I believe I’ve completely sold out of it all at 98/99 since there’s zero reason to hold for that long on this site. Literally rolled it all over into maxing the rest of a 98 no market that just paid out. This was just three days ago.
all those dudes not to get charged (LOL)
worst bet of the year
tulsi gabbard to miss the debate (might be a bigger loss than all the hillary $ above, god damn it)
Hillary markets finally moving in the direction I predicted. It just took 26 missed state deadlines to convince people. My only mistake was underestimating the depths of trumper stupidity. Wish I’d held and not sold at 86 or whatever out of frustration/impatience.
Looks like smokeys been outed in the comments for multiaccounting. Will predictit take action? LOL. Nah.
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in things that amuse me, Yang to win a primary has the same odds as Yang to win the nomination.
Barr to not get charged seems like free money but that one is too long/too little to be worth it I think on here unless you have a shit ton on the site. same with most of the “will they run” ones at this point.
McCabe market has expired, but still isn’t cashing out for me yet? Anyone else having this problem?
They haven’t paid out Comey or Clapper markets either. I assume they will get paid today or tomorrow.
they got a lot of markets to close and probably are hung over/took the day off. It’s probably a holiday over there. (according to google, the 2nd is as well) So it probably won’t pay out till the 3rd.
edit–well some have gotten paid out today so maybe