https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1204066645687312384?s=21
yeah looks like they’re throwing the book at least figuratively for the lawyer dude named in wapo today and something about steele getting stuff about him that shouldn’t be out there, out there but I’m ashamed I only got some free money instead of a lot of free money.
USMCA has been the craziest market this month, I was fortunate to get out at 81 on my NO’s when the tires started turning slightly and I just have no idea so I’ve let it go. Shame I didn’t just put it into yes and sell now cause I still don’t know heh.
Moved some money into Haley to win 2020 @ .02. I think she mounts a challenge to Trump.
She is never going to try to primary Trump–it’s .02 because if trump isn’t running she’s the clear favorite to me to win the R nom, and without the anti trump spite vote she has a good shot at winning.
Will Hillary run is at 23% and will Hillary be the nominee is up to 12%.
???
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LOL I’m guessing part of it is because of the poll mentioned in the below article
This might be the most consistently batshit market on Predictit.
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Isn’t the filing deadline for CA already over?
Yes. It’s the poll. That market will glob on to anything imaginable.
PredictIt is starting to freak me out. Almost every position I have is underwater and somehow getting worse. Hillary running, Trump and popular vote, which party wins … ugh
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Shit I really need to get on this. Keep meaning to and never do. Any referrals available or sign-up bonus whoring?
Nah, and the rake kinda sucks imo. Still fun tho. “Will Trump win the popular vote?” Is my favorite market right now.
You guys have been tying up hundreds trying to earn like 9% return on these irrational markets in 6 months and getting furious about it, why not buy undervalued contracts that have overreacted to polls/news/debates/whatever?
Also, lets say we get some sort of lengthy, contested primary, that doesn’t get solved until near or at the convention. Would Warren ever accept the VP spot (under Biden I guess) in some sort of “compromise” deal between the “moderates” and the “progressives?” I can’t see them ever offering it to Bernie (nor him accepting). I only bring this up because Warren for VP is currently @ 5c x 6c which is the same price as Tulsi who has literally 0 chance of being VP. Shes also trading less than Pete (11c x 12c) who similarly has ~0 chance of being VP.
Haven’t put much thought into the VP decision but I disagree that Pete has zero chance of being VP
Who’s furious? 9% in a few months is a solid return afaict.
Literally half of this thread is people constantly posting about how irrational the various Hillary markets are and getting annoyed at the YES price increasing.
And sure. if we were talking thousands of dollars maybe, but 9% on a 850 max bet before fees?
i rode the .80 to .87-.88 wave like 4 times. I’m out now with about $200 profit from that market.
I did think it would have resolved to like .95 by now but lol. People are mad because they got in at like .85 and it hasn’t been up around there in quite a while despite her missing deadlines left and right. I have to admit I really predicted this poorly. I underestimated the stupidity of the average trumper.
I just don’t know what he brings to the table for any of the front runners. Bernie obviously is never picking him and Biden needs someone exciting to drive turnout, since no one is super pumped to vote for him. I could see him either choosing a POC like Abrams or Kamala, both of whom have been floated as his potential VP choice for months, or someone (Warren?) to appeal to the progressive base. Even if Biden preferred to go with a bland midwestern moderate pick, Klob seems like a much better option since she is a woman and actually popular in her state. Warren seems like the best possible choice to pick Pete, but their campaigns have been clashing recently and she too is much better off with a POC.
Of course, Hillary picked Tim fucking Kaine which likely was a factor in her loss, so who knows what the Dems will end up doing. “Oh lets pair Biden, who is old, with Pete, who is young, so we will appeal to the next generation of voters!!” Nevermind that they basically share the same base -black people for Pete.
I’m not mad it got tied up, I’m mad that free money was actually more free money.
I try to sell the news cycle when I hear it but I’ll often screw this up and there’s some 90ish markets you can get when you realize it’s drawing dead before it gets there the next day.
Tulsi VP NO is free but irrelevant right now with higher rake than the payoff and a long ass time.
Pete’s way overvalued in other markets than VP that arrive sooner (some of those south states he’s way way less than 10% to win)
Some of this shit is hard like tweets, dunno if Yang over everything is still hitting or not.