I cashed out of no on Hillary running in 2020 at 85 cents and put it all into Trump getting impeached by the end of 2019. I’m damn near all-in on that one now with like 75% of my PredictIt roll on it at an average of 46 cents. I’m pretty confident in it at this point, and then I can probably still buy back into the Hillary position between 80 and 85 cents… LOL
I’ve also got $100 on Deval to win SC, got a little of it at .02 and most at .03. I think if Biden falters he’s got a very real shot there, so I like taking a 33 to 1 flier on it.
I think the deval is lighting $ on fire too, there’s other candidates I like better in that scenario.
Biden is winning SC if he’s still in the race even if he kinda sucks with all three of IA/NH/NV. There’s a reason they are attacking the bidens, R’s believe he’s the clear frontrunner.
Someone is massively dumping Hillary shares today, idk if it’s in response to anything in the news or what. I’ll probably cash out and collect my winnings if it gets to .05
Also for some reason I’m unaware of, so is Michelle Obama.
edit–apparently this is because of Tucker Carlson.
edit2–someone sniped me on 86 NO on this market damnit sadly I’d probably have to sell at 95 again just to get it to another market that closes sooner.
In before that never happens because this site is full of morons.
Yang’s chances are more ridiculous than Bloomberg’s on predictit.
Though not worth betting on because of time length.
Pete is either too high or too low, I’m not sure yet. Really depends on what happens with Biden after IA/NH, he doesn’t have the it factor, but he has the numbers to win still.
Warren is clearly fourth in odds even though I think she probably doesn’t end up fourth in delegates–her upside is way harder than the other three.
man, early october, warren was trading at 63 to win iowa, things can change fast in politics. Pete 7 or 8%.
I’m still holding mine but I screwed up too–I didn’t max pete winning Iowa when I said it on this board awhile ago till after he passed 20 or bet him for a significant number anywhere else at cents on the dollar.
I also didn’t think to fire hard against warren then as well b/c they have the same demo–boy was that a lot of money missed there.
MAX NO on bloomberg @ 89, couldn’t quite get an avg of 88 here, but I decided to **** it and just do it now rather than try to wait and hit the bump, one nonsensical thing on this site is you almost always can get a better price if you wait so I was very tempted. (unless it was literally just in the news cycle, then sell that)
I can’t do POTUS @ 92 it’s bugged for me, sigh.
Bloomberg doesn’t win a primary @ 76. I’ve kinda shoved allin against him. Will $ buy a presidency, hmmm maybe.
NO on michelle running @ 90. (91 or 92 atm) Tucker pumped this, but I don’t see it. Hopefully it drops like a rock soon so I can get out of it to put the $ back in Hillary NO’s in areas I had to dump out for earlier markets.
NO on bloomberg everywhere else–anything I can get at 91 or so is getting hammered too by me.
NO at an avg of 91 (you can’t get this atm) on global average temperature. This one is over, it’ll be the second warmest year. The issue is it won’t hit till Feb. This gets bumped up from time to time after some “this is the warmest month on record” article gets spat out there so watch for that.
I’ve still held max on impeachment but it’s tilting that current prices are worse than I paid for.
Thinking about it, I was perhaps wrong firing so hard on him never winning a primary, bloomberg is firing hard on ads everywhere even in irrelevant states.
I tried searching the old forum for it but came up empty (old Politics forum is still archived so it should be there somewhere). Going off memory I believe the bet was a straight $100 on impeachment happening in 2019 (I had yes, you had no). I’m probably a dog at this point but if you want to recertify the bet here I’m good with it. This is contingent on the old bet being with you, I assume it was, but if someone else digs up the post on 2p2 and makes a claim I’m not trying to bet twice. I’d also consider a rebet here to supercede the 2p2 bet so if I got the terms wrong we would use the terms here. And FYI I’m considering the 2p2 bet live either way unless explicitly bought out or canceled, so I’d spend a bit more time searching for the old post if the impeachment happens and I don’t hear back from you.