Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

I hate you guys I’m a fish maxed out at .91 and just never selling.

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On the bright side, if they never give up, we’ll be to keep putting buy orders in at ~80c even when it’s like a total lock and only a few months away.

I switched to yes 15c to ride the swings, lol. Might as well get in on the scam.

someone plunked a shit ton on republican on the swing states today. IA/FL probably right odds now but I’m going to take PA at 50 at least.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1195182151593013248?s=19

Couldn’t help myself, bought bernie for nominee at $.14. Warren has to be sinking after yesterday’s health care fiasco.

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what happend with warren and healthcare?

She shifted right to pick up pete voters

Yep trying to dump my Warren shares

This market had tanked some, so I decided to double down in light of Sondland’s testimony and Ken Starr’s comments that it may be time for GOP reps to have a serious conversation with Trump. It’s definitely a YOLO bet, but I’m feeling it atm.

What?!?! That is basically a bet on him dieing. And even if he dies in office they’d probably cover it up for a month.

I think it’s a fair 14:1 shot.

I bought $10 worth of Joe Walsh 2020 penny stocks just for fun. Figure he might get some buzz at some point as a Trump replacement. Probably a dumb bet but w/e.

is pompeo resigning now or not, ffs.

saw his senate odds skyrocket and I went “why, he doesn’t have to file till june” instead of “dude, buy him to leave shares right now, they’ll double by the time you wake up”

How? He resigns? Trump is never ever resigning. He’s too stupid and gotten away with too much his whole life for that.

He gets impeached and removed? I think it’s unlikely they even get impeachment in the House wrapped up in 2019. He’s never getting convicted in the Senate. But in the dream world where he does, there is 0% chance it happens in 2019. It’s almost impossible they even BEGIN a trial in 2019.

So we’re back to KFC having 40 days to win the war.

Counterpoint. If a cabal of GOP senators gets genuinely concerned, and I think some are close, they will decide the sooner Trump is gone, the better. It’s possible that 15 senators tell Trump before dec. 20 to resign. This is the Nixon model. I mean, it’s a longshot, but so is the US president colluding with Putin to help win a US election.

Least/most speaking time is free money every time if you just play the swings

I YOLO’d 1%'s instead of that just sell everyone when they stop talking. Harris get there one time?

edit–nope. Warren ends up talking the most every debate I could’ve just done that and Yang the least.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1197982939704909831?s=20

I’m still super tilted I can’t bet against bloomberg. (it’s bugged for me–takes a no as a yes somehow) That’s got to be free given his unfavorable rating. I’m going to bet against him making Dec debate but I’m wondering if I should wait till eh gets a qualifying poll and get better odds.

edit–nice bets man, I didn’t get in those markets till too late :/. It says they’re going after some ex FBI lawyer–was McCabe a lawyer there? Just dotting the I’s on free money things here and all that.

edit2–also a chance I can get better odds just waiting till dec 5th when R’s hype up the report release (supposedly on the 6th).