Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

Old lady clinton, a breitbartism apparently. And the comment section under hillary for 2020 is what I have been reading while bored at work. It’s just generally accepted in there she wears a defibrillator vest.

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Hillary at 0.20, still trending upwards as we run out of time, this market is unhinged.

Yea I’m a little/a lot annoyed. I think the december deadlines might break through to these guys but fear they’re so desperate they’re just never gonna let go.

I’m happy I got in at 79 but I dont want $850 tied up for a fucking year.

It seems like the move is to unload it in the high 80’s/low 90’s in the next couple months, then keep an eye on it for when the conspiracy theorists go nuts at some point next year over some silly thing…

Although, with an unlimited bankroll the move would just be to hold it until it closes and take the free money, and add as much more as you can/want if it dips ridiculously next year.

If someone is on track to win the nomination outright before the convention, it should settle to about 97-98 cents right?

That’s what Ive been doing every time it moves up, I sell, then buy back when it drops to .80 again. This time the move upwards was only 3 cents. And the most recent news makes it 99.999999999% likely she isnt running or declaring.

lol it’s not going to .97 until Inauguration Day.

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Booked.

Meanwhile I’m still holding on Trump to be impeached in the House by the end of the year… These hearings are only scheduled through 11/21, it seems like they’ve got everyone they want to do a public hearing with scheduled for one, except for those refusing to honor the subpoenas. November 21 is the last day in session before Thanksgiving, then they’re back in session December 3-12.

Obviously there’s always the risk of Dems doing stupid stuff, but it seems crazy to not vote fairly quickly once the hearings are done, let alone to wait over a month. They also have the option to extend the December session to the 20th without hitting Chanukah, so there’s plenty of time to vote.

What are others thinking on this? I feel like it’s gotta be at least 70-30 to be voted on before the end of the year, so taking that at 47 cents versus the slam dunk vote by the end of 2019 at 78 cents still seems like the better play.

:+1:

I like keeping my outstanding bets with one party lol

TBH I’m kinda the worst in that I make bets with people and forget about them so if I lose any please prod me and I’ll pay up asap.

Action in the McCabe market on this:
Justice Department Filing Suggests No McCabe Prosecution Imminent

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damn I missed it went up to 25c just yesterday

impeachment odds keep falling also

Same on my end

LOOOOOOOOL Qanon is the best to ever happen to Predictit. So many suckers getting fleeced.

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I’m loading up a new max on my wife’s account. Liberals apparently have never heard of Durham or Horowitz?

PredictIt forums even more aidsy than expected.

I’m telling you it’ll suck you in. It’s fascinating.

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lmaoooo it’s almost back at .79 again. I am break even. This is not real life. These guys are never letting go of their shares. Maybe once the official candidate is put in place? I am trying to think of a point where these guys bail and don’t cling to some new crazy made up scenario and I just can’t think of it.

I maxed it out in the 80’s and have been VERY tilted at the swings. Guess I should’ve sold it all at 86 or so when I had the chance.

I am fairly confident we’ll see a big rise once she stops this stupid ass book tour and stops saying stupid shit when asked the question. Especially after a bunch of state deadlines pass in december - I’ve seen people say in the comments THAT’S when they’ll get really worried. But I don’t know at this point. I think every single flip we’ve seen have been some yes hillary’s dropping out and realizing the truth but we might be down to the true, true believers now. In which case I’m truly sorry about your position. I keep selling in the mid 80’s and rebuying when it gets like this but I dont know how many more swings this market has - it’s at a stalemate. SOMEHOW. Like this honestly can’t be real life. There’s no way she can run even if she wanted to!