I sold off all my Kamala bets at the perfect time and switched them to Trump and won a gajillion dollars
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i… did not. 
If the Reps sweep house and senate I come within like about 2-5% of breaking even but Im pretty certain the popular vote is tarnished at this point.
lol my NO on Trump 4+ in Nevada bet is going to get torched too, brutal.
Ralston basically got exposed as clueless as soon as he was outside his comfort zone of how things have always worked in Nevada and I put a little too much trust in him. He was making some assumptions that seem fairly unjustified in hindsight.
From purely a gambler’s perspective,
That French whale is now a gambling LEGEND, forevermore
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I lost about $30k in BTC
Anyone else lose there shirt?
i lost about 1.5k on my btc short which was effectively a bet on kamala. I would have probably lost about 20k betting on Kamala to win the popular vote but Polymarket was the only place that carried that bet and i didnt feel like figuring out how to get money on there.
Yes
I lost an order of magnitude more than I’ve ever paid for a shirt, but that’s not saying much.
I lost $5000 due to microbet convincing me not to bet all my cash on Trump
I lost hundreds of dollars betting on Georgia at 11c. I could have gone to 5 Guys like 20 times with that money.
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I lost thousands on that. I don’t regret any of it, the price was absurd. It was 2020 all over again except this time the comeback never materialized. I don’t believe the information was there at the time to know it wouldn’t, though.
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From Matt Levine’s newsletter today. That French guy was more sophisticated than we gave him credit for:
Polls failed to account for the “shy Trump voter effect,” Théo said. Either Trump backers were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported the former president, or they didn’t want to participate in polls, Théo wrote.
To solve this problem, Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.Théo cited a handful of publicly released polls conducted in September using the neighbor method alongside the traditional method. These polls showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported.
To Théo, this was evidence that pollsters were—once again—underestimating Trump’s support. The data helped convince him to put on his long-shot bet that Trump would win the popular vote. At the time that Théo made those wagers, bettors on Polymarket were assessing the chances of a Trump popular-vote victory at less than 40%.
As Théo celebrated the returns on Election Night, he disclosed another piece of the analysis behind his successful wager. In an email, he told the Journal that he had commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbor effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, “were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!”
He got lucky just stop
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My pessimistic view of America allowed me to make some money in this election. Wish I could give it back
This is the guy that bought every sell order up to like .98 right? Yea I don’t think he was more sophisticated, just a very lucky idiot.
Did he? If I’d been allowed to post the last few months I wouldve been begging you guys not to bet biden/kamala - I could not find any numbers that seemed to indicate she had a meaningful advantage when accounting for poll skew. If you believe in things like the 12 indicators or whatever, it was even less likely (I don’t necessarily believe in that, but someone like this guy might).
To me, by the time biden dropped out I thought it was 100% gg. The logistics alone, finding a competent team + mounting a campaign out of nowhere in an election that’s ~100 days away is unprecedented and maybe impossible, even if you were a likeable candidate, which kamala was not.
I could easily see a casual whale accounting for all of this and making an informed huge bet. I would have, had I funds this year.
If it’s a shares market - it’s practically a freeroll if you believe trump surges on early returns. You can just dump and then take the other side.
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guy hit a coin flip and is giving interviews haha
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yes, and as i’m sure you know, seeing bitcoin hit all time highs wednesday was the second kick in the nuts, as most of my bets were with bitcoin money 
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Yeah, the premium on these things are always extreme. DJT might crash in the next few days or it could linger for years like AMC/GME. Depending on Indvidual privileges through their broker, I think intraday shorting a stock like this is always better. They have far more red days than green on avg but rip higher on their green days - its just a lot of work.
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