If you didn’t lose all your poly money betting on the last free money special, you can get 3-1 odds that one of Trump’s random campaign pandering promises that ~nobody cares about was bullshit.
I have a big bet brewing on the yes side on abortion ban in next 4 years as defined by nationwide bill to restrict abortion to less than 8 weeks or a nationwide ban on abortion pills like minifestrone which is basically gg. The latter of which I am not getting action on, the earlier one seems like slam dunk free money.
Might be a sucker’s bet. There’s plenty of room for some sort of executive action based on restricting federal funding or some such that renders legislation unnecessary.
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this is bait
Yeah I was a little late to the party on this one, I bet NO on Ulbricht for 33 cents. Some advisor will explain to Trump that Ulbricht tried to hire hitmen to kill people and that will be that. Oh but he promised the Libertarian Party he’d pardon him? Oh no, maybe they’ll take him to court for breach of promise.
You can also get over 5% on your money over a two-month window taking NO on the “Will Biden pardon Trump?” market. This is a real market that real people are betting YES on, using real money.
I did almost exactly the same thing as you, buying some at 26c and then a bunch more at 32-33 after scrounging up more crypto. If he didn’t randomly blow a few words out his lie hole while pandering to the weirdoest subset of libertarians, this wouldn’t even be a market because there would be zero chance. Great market to take money from people who are flush with cash and want to believe that daddy is going to follow through on one of his bullshit promises to a mega-niche group that is counter to his overall ideology.
I am currently loading up on NO on this:
I don’t see how this is possible. On NYT’s estimate of remaining votes, third parties would need to run at around 5.7% to get the overall vote over 2%. California (where many of the outstanding votes are located) is currently running at 3% third party, which is well above the national average of 1.83%, but nowhere near good enough to get it over the line. Even if you double the estimate of remaining votes, the third party vote would still need to be 3.9%. There are just too many votes counted already for remaining ballots to make a dent.
This was over 60 cents yes going into the election? Wild. I guess there was a lot of RFK and Stein ballot uncertainty.
I mean the actual number is currently ~1.83% so it wasn’t wildly off… but yeah a bit optimistic.
lol it looks like I might be getting scammed by the resolution source here. The market rules say this:
This market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia.
I foolishly assumed this would mean the site actually showed the certified vote totals, but no. Looking at previous elections, he includes write-in votes even where those votes don’t count in the state in question because the candidate did not pre-register as a write-in candidate as required in many states. These are therefore not actually “votes”, but he includes them anyway. So where I assumed that California is going to get basically no write-in votes (because they have one pre-registered write-in candidate nobody has ever heard of) they’re instead going to get a bunch which are all going to be dumped in at the end. The official, certified results will say close to zero write-in votes and this guy’s website is going to say tens of thousands. Caveat emptor I guess.
you always have to read the fine print with those
anyway PI is dead now, kalshi has overtaken them in the US
world it’s polymarket
ah yes it’s because trumpers made bank not because US people are betting on a site that isn’t legal in the US and everyone knows it.
also he’s in new york, people who have not legal markets in the US that US people bet on are not in the US for that reason.
What - they block US IP addresses and in no way encourage you to use a VPN. Pretty sure under Trump DOJ that is going to be sufficient steps to not violate the law.
They pretty much market to US customers. Any idiot after the texas porn ban knows how to work a commercial VPN and they don’t follow strict KYC. it doesnt take a lot to prosecute here on this other than to just show he was knowingly serving a significant percent of US customers. From what I’ve read he’s been fairly brazen about it, too.
I must have made my point bad - I was saying that they are doing basically nothing (I guess at least they are not one of those crypto sites that has a pop-up that basically tells you to use a VPN when you try to access from a US IP), but that under Trump, this will now be sufficient.
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You can use the I’m a republican getting persecuted for my beliefs for any crime now so good for him.
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Gaetz yes at 28c feels like good value
If it’s a recess appointment it resolves as No though right?
Yeah. On second thought, it does seem like too much risk that he’s just a perpetual recess appointment or “acting” AG.