Hard to say for sure, but it seems like he doesn’t understand that those published percentages reflect the weighted values, not the raw data? I’m guessing his “investor” claims refers to Crypto or such lol.
Also aa little suspicious is that they are only mentioning the NYT cross tabs which are so obviously placed on one of the world’s most popular websites. That may just be reflective of the video production but someone might send this guy an email indicating that the raw microdata for a lot of these polls are easily available.
Yup - you can check the topline numbers in that crosstabs for the NC poll he highlights. It shows 515/431 Harris/Trump (or 51/43%) but poll adjusts this to 48/46 - likely based in part on the issue he noticed about the poll oversampling Biden voters.
He’s basically unskewing the raw numbers, not the adjusted numbers.
Wow. I really hate to lol at something like this because I may be missing something very obvious, but it seems like the election prediction markets have been shifted by 5% or more by a single guy who doesn’t understand how polls work?
But I assume all the other whales have other info and are on point
A lot of stupid people became filthy rich with crypto who will live their rest of their lives thinking they are geniuses rather than getting lucky. I’m gonna assume this is the case here.
That would be a reasonable critique, but as stated in the video he seems to be claiming that the weighted percentages don’t line up with the raw sample totals and that “he is the only one” who has noticed this. The implication is that the pollsters are lying or miscalculated.
After my previous post I went back and looked at some of the comments and a bunch of people are hypothesizing that this is satire. If so LOL at me I guess, I like to think I can pick up on this stuff.
I mean, it’s pretty clear at this point that political betting markets are often laughably inefficient. The biggest whale this time turns out to be a french guy who has no idea what he’s doing. Last time, hordes of Trump idiots were still betting on him to win after the election was already over.
There’s just an insane amount of emotion-based gambling that happens with politics.
Circling back to this, I think markets were definitely more volatile close to election. The Seltzer poll moved IA by like 10-15% (would have more than doubled your money there) and then Ralston moved NV by 5% (first down then up)
In principle markets are efficient, in the case of politics betting, there just aren’t enough people involved who aren’t weirdos and the influence of a few irrational whales can skew the markets. I don’t think that’s too mind-blowing, sports books know that the betting line is going to tilt toward the home team and so on.
My baseline prediction tonight is that even if other places look good for Kamala, Florida is going to continue its swing right, and Trump backers will use that as their justification for doubling down on their positions.
I just think the already underway shift in Florida politics leading into 2020, and the fact that since then a ton of people flocked to the state in part because of the political views of the leaders there would indicate to me that Florida is going to be as strong or stronger for Trump than in 2020, but that it doesn’t necessarily hold a ton of water for the rest of the map.
I feel like GA and NC and even Indiana out of the early states are much better indicators.
I totally get that but there is a difference between a bunch of guys on Intrade/Predictit playing with their birthday money from Grammy and a guy cornering the market to the tune of 50 million dollars despite not knowing how to read a newspaper. If this guy loses today I hope someone buys him a Polling for Dummies book for Christmas.
and even those states are all must wins for Trump but not for us. Due to # of white women shifting toward Kamala i feel like she can underperform Biden in GA and still be fine in the other states. But that wont stop people from panicking if she does. could be a good betting opportunity if she gets down in the 30s early on
I didn’t expect a supposedly sophisticated finance bro to be printing on 11x17 paper, highlighting stuff, making handwritten notes, and using a cheap handheld calculator (old Casio model, no longer available?). And you don’t really even need the calculator to spot that those percentages are different. Maybe all that is just for show though. Idk anything.
This is precisely what happened in 2020. I bought trump pretty cheap on election day, florida results were called for trump early in the evening, his stock surged and I sold around 1am at ~triple what I got in for.
The problem is that GA and NC are closing at the same time and there is expected to be a “blue mirage” in those states due to early counting of mail ballots. So I’m not sure if it will be FL or that which will be the narrative.
