If FL goes under 3% Trump id put my networth on Kamala. Think Florida will be a blowout and don’t really think it matters much as long as Trump isnt just blowing the polls out of the water.
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Florida shouldn’t be a blowout. The last Democrat to lose by more than 5 points was Dukakis.
Florida is perpetually disappointing, but that’s because it’s often so close.
Agreed, 2 might be a better signal than 3, but Im being a bit optimistic here.
This cycle it should be at least R +2, if it isnt they have big problems elsewhere
Florida felt like a blowout because Biden did worse than Hillary on higher turnout.
There’s a 1M gap compared to 2020.
Last year alone 300k+ registered as Republicans vs only 38k.
Meatball Ron won by 19 and Little Marco by 16 2-years ago.
Anything close to 10 would be decent for Kamala.
You can get Florida sub 8% Trump win for 40c fwiw. Lol betting markets and everything, but i think lol Florida goes way more red than last time
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This is the same story in every state in the South. North Carolina went 270k+ net registrations from D to R in past 4 years, but that doesn’t mean that Trump wins by more in 2024 than 2020. In most cases it is the same voters, they just register differently when given the opportunity.
The early voting numbers are not to be taken at face value but Kamala is getting stomped in Florida. RCP average is Trump +8. +3 would be a 5 point polling miss, if that happens she will be sweeping all the swing states easily. Trump +6 would be a good result. I am not going to pay much attention to it though. Last cycle it lurched further to the right even as Dems won back the White House, including a 22 point swing to Rs in Miami-Dade. I have no confidence at all that it is going to match national trends. Its in the bottom tier of indicative states along with like NY and Wyoming.
My current thought is that Kamala should be slightly favored, but I’m also holding out hope that there will be some early piece of data that all the Trumpers grab on to in order to make the case that they’re winning and swing markets in his direction
Polymarket whale firing more bullets.
As the Selzer poll shows, I would be very nervous betting in states that have any kind of abortion issue up for vote (including FL).
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I’d say if she takes any of NV, AZ, GA, NC, you can feel pretty good. But none of those may be settled on Election night.
Word is we will have a lot of NC and GA counted very early in the night.
I made a spreadsheet which takes the swing state simulation outcomes from Nate’s model and calculates how many states he gets right what percentage of the time. In other words, this is what the model itself predicts about how accurate it will be. It doesn’t include simulation outcomes where non swing states flip, but I think that is fine for this purpose.
I took a bit of 48 Correct on Polymarket because it’s trading at 25c, but it’s just for a fun sweat rather than a serious attempt to make money.
what are the chances ted cruz actually impodes today? Seems like it’s gotta be less than a coinflip but better than 25%?
If it’s better than 25% then poly is ++ev (no liquidity for the no side either)
Don’t see it up anymore, but BetOnline had him -600/+450 for the past couple of weeks.
Every guy with a model, every election analyst, every large bettor is going Kamala. Yet the odds go the other way 
There’s two new accounts that have loaded up 45m shares of exclusively Trump general in the last day.
I’m betting against them, 37.5% is too low.
https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1853836775417938093
So this French guy did some crosstab analysis, came to the conclusion that Trump has a 90% of winning and put down 40M? 