https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1852584479438819418
Very hard for me to imagine Dems are coming back from here. Margin will not be as chonky as that though.
But isnt like ~30% of reporting indies?
So they have to win that by 5 points, which isnt super unreasonable?
I’d get it in a scenario where its currently something like 52 vs 47 GOP but its actually like 37vs33vs30
The weight of whale money was biasing the market for a while but its currently at Trump 57.6, which is a pretty reasonable assessment imo.
More philosophically, weight of money determining price is what a market is. Its not necessarily accurate, but an unbiased market is one where weight of money is supreme.
Ralstons take was this:
So you see the Dems will need to win indies by at least 5 points and maybe 6 or 7. Is it possible? Sure. But it’s a heavy lift.
This was before the late night update which was also good for Rs.
I hope all the no tips on taxes workers enjoy getting fucked my more taxes.
Kamala now the favorite on betfair to win PA. Dropped to 1.92 (52%).
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What the fuck dude
Strange things going on over at predicit dot com
Not conceding the election will be trading 99c
The Kalshi Exchange is experiencing technical issues. Traders will be notified when trading will resume.
Not a good sign for election night.
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Well I may have screwed you over lol, I have to say I wasn’t expecting this anti-Trump surge closer to Election Day. It kind of makes sense, the whales have blown their load and now the weight of money of smaller bettors is starting to tell.
In good news, I managed to get rid of my bet that Miami-Dade County will stay blue for a small loss. That was definitely the worst bet I have made this cycle.
I am the top holder in this market for NO on both Trump 4%+ and Kamala 4%+. From reading Ralston I consider the likelihood of either outcome something close to zero. The current GOP lead is 4%, and everyone expects the Dems to peg it back hard from here. By everyone I mean both campaigns and every analyst I have read. The argument is around whether the Dems will reverse the trend hard enough to actually win (which some analysts argue they will and which the NYT/Siena poll yesterday was compatible with), or whether the GOP will hang on. Some GOP operative friend of Ralston made the pretty good analogy that the GOP have pocket queens and are allin against the Dems AKo and now have to sweat the runout. Either candidate winning by 4%+ would require some extremely weird happenings from here which nobody who knows NV thinks is realistic. I have kind of had my fill of these markets, this is one of my top FREE MONEY tips if anyone else is keen to get involved. Note that the second-top holder of the Kamala NO market is none other than domer aka the biggest Polymarket winner ever, and all of the top 5 NO holders on the Trump side are winning bettors, two of them big winners.
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Kamala down to 42c ruh roh
lol polymarket
kamalover
Anyone have a good primer for what to look for on Election night as far as good data indicating things going one way or another?
Betfair rules:
This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.
So if Kamala wins this market will be open for the the next 2 months. Noice. I’m sure Polymarket will have something similar like who will be inaugurated on January with 50M traded.
Early things to look for
FL - Under T +3
Miami-Dade - Tied or better
N.C. Tied or better
Are all very good signs.
Also NH.
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