I forgot about that. That might be the most WTF discrepancy between poll and result I can remember, now that I think about it. Certainly top 5.
Gambling brains let me ask a question here - if politics betting markets were extremely efficient and liquid (basically if they actually worked as well as their proponents say they do) would you expect the odds to become more volatile or less as the election got close to the end? And why?
I think it should work the way that in-game betting markets work for e.g. basketball. If it’s a close game the odds become more volatile near the end as each new piece of information is more important to the outcome. It it’s a blowout the odds become less volatile near the end.
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I dont think this is apt because it’s difficult for new information to change the picture much at that point. I think a better comparison is weather forecasting, where theres quite a bit of volatility a long way out because of uncertainty. Closer to the day, big changes in the picture are possible but unlikely, you are more likeky to be making marginal adjustments.
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Disagree - given the small margins, late information may not move the needle much, but if it moves it past a tipping point it’s huge. Information much further out can’t really do that.
Using your analogy, it would be like betting whether the temperature at 7 pm on a specific day is going to be higher than 70 degrees. Information much further out (like a storm or a front) could have bigger effects on expected temperature, but information on that day - even if it’s only going to make a marginal adjustment, could have a huge swing in the bet if it’s close to the tipping point.
I’d think for this reason, bets like who will win a state (or the EC) should be more volatile, while bets on things like the popular vote should be less volatile.
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One of the sharper politics bettors if you want some hopium.
https://x.com/SethBurn/status/1852408306012151828
Sherrod last won in a midterm. Last time he ran in a presidential year it was when Obama carried the state.
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Trump’s # on polymarket now starts with a 5
I dont think the sort of information you’re talking about exists, or at least it’s very rare. Like to bring it back to the real world, if we got a 5000 LV poll of PA from a good pollster with Harris +8, that would certainly move the needle in a way nothing could further out. But were unlikely to get something like that. What we get is a lot of information but low confidence in any of it.
I posted 4 days ago on the other forum that I thought the betting line should reflect something like Harris -150. I think the biggest weakness of the big models is that they can’t/don’t try to predict how the last 4-5% is going to vote. Trump got 46.1% in '16 and 46.8% in '20. He had massive EC advantages (3-4%) in both of those elections, which seems to be greatly diminished to the 1-2% range. In 2016 he had the benefit of huge 3rd party vote, which went away in 2020 and unlikely to reappear.
So basically a vote on Trump at minus odds is a vote that he can clear 48-49% in the popular vote. I’m skeptical that he finds himself at an all time high in popularity. I expect that he will once again find himself in the 46-47% range, with Harris in the 50-52% range, with a diminished EC advantage.
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this is crazy. it’s just some foreign crypto weirdo
https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599?s=46&t=hUTQWHj9NQWf8Y8RgMv1TA
Foreign Crypto Weirdo is coincidentally Elon’s secret account name.
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Efficient markets, invisible hand, nah it’s really all feels.
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Could it be the the market is adjusting to these news? Or maybe it’s just people realizing +180 for a race all models have 55/45 is insane.
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also the people betting the other side are really stupid lmao 
PI is super distorted because it caps bets so low.
Yeah but that kind of favors the incoming buyer at times. If Kamala comes out ahead in Florida on election night and she jumps up to 75%, trump is going to lag behind and is No bet offers the edge.
How is it less distorted than Polymarket where anyone can dump a few milly on their chosen candidate?
It’s a question of whether you think the masses are smarter than the whales.