Weird betting market where both sides think they are getting a great once in a lifetime price.
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holy shit, it’s a whole other tab next to ‘for you’ and ‘following’. i had no idea you could do that, awesome.
There are a lot of bets you can make outside of PI and outside of politics, like “Will the US send a man to Venus by Oct31”? or "Will Jesus walk the Earth by Christmas at 3%. Despite the sometimes deceptive liquidity levels with those, those bets would usually +EV for those who hammer the other side and have the money to outlay all the max payouts. That edge is pretty similar to a premium an option trader would receive in selling a covered call on a volatile stock. My only argument was that those types of bets are normal and those errors don’t spill over to the billion dollar ones.
Max bet the “no” on this ASAP.
I’d bet rather heavily against a manned Mars mission happening within my lifetime.
How are you going to make sure you get paid off when you win?
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Considering we don’t have the technology to keep anything we land on Venus from melting into a puddle of slag I think this a safe bet.
Lawyers.
And yet, amazingly USSR probes have transmitted data from the surface of Venus.
For how long? My understanding is it is super hot and super corrosive on the surface. {visiting the google} Sorry, it’s only hot enough to melt lead on the surface of Venus (700 degrees F) and sulfuric acid clouds makes the surface not very hospitable to humans.
23 min to 2 hrs, according to wiki. They might have landed on the dark side.
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Around that time it became increasingly known that Venus was unlikely to have liquid bodies of water
No shit, bro.
I think a pretty good class of bets on Polymarket is stuff where No is around 80 cents or so and its something that sounds plausible to people but theres no reason to suppose will actually happen. I have no on Iran getting a nuke, no on a north/south korea armed conflict (both before 2025), no on Trump nominating Elon to Cabinet.
With the Iran one for example, i think people are like “boy they sure could use a nuke right now, so they must be trying extra hard”. But theyve wanted a nuke since the Iraq War, probably. How long ago was Stuxnet? Wanting one extra hard doesnt help with the technical challenge. Mossad has also thoroughly penetrated Iran from what ive read and Israel just bombed Iran. If they were on the verge of getting a nuke, Israel would bomb the facilities.
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Didn’t know about this. That’s pretty darned impressive by those scientists!
In a world where Kamala is somewhere around 40-60% to ship it, I absolutely cannot believe that Sherrod Brown is a big underdog to win the Senate in Ohio.
Yeah there’s some wild Senate lines on there. Kari Lake is at 25% somehow when her best polls are a couple of ties from lol atlas and some other shitter and she’s getting curbstomped in every other poll. NV also at 20% Sam Brown when everything I’ve seen says his chances are extremely slim.
The recent trend line suggests some heavy bets in the last week or two, no? It seems like betting on Rs has become something of a meme stock in October.
Seems reasonable. He is in Ohio after all. I was shocked he shipped it last time.
I don’t think 40% is unreasonable, that’s just based on my feels.Moreno is riding on a wave of anti-immigrant hysteria.
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On its own, it’s reasonable to believe that LOL Ohio would vote for Moreno over Brown. What’s crazy to me is the idea that Brown has roughly the same likelihood as Kamala - I think his chances are substantially better than hers.
Let’s not forget that Susan Collins was like 5 pts down on average and then won easily. Polls can be way off.
I think Pres and Senator are highly correlated. Obviously there are exceptions (like Brown last time), but I think it would be unusual for sen candidate to have a “substantially” better chance than pres candidate. It happens, but when it does, that is surprising. No significant difference between the two is standard.