I think they offer same markets to everyone. I haven’t seen anything about new markets for non-U.S
So why does a NZ-based exchange give a shit about what the 5th Circuit thinks, when dealing with non-Americans?
They probably could announce that they are shutting down US operations and blocking US customers, and be fine legally. However, I’d bet that most of their customers were US, so they can’t survive without them.
Is Predicit still unsafe these days? I saw this posted elsewhere and I’m very tempted to get back on.
I don’t think it was ever unsafe, they just are still in litigation with the FTC and can’t open any new markets.
5% withdraw cut hurts and it takes forever for that market to resolve is the issue when you can get over 4% ROI just throwing it into an online savings account instead. I really haven’t been on there but yeah it’s another stupid market. I have no idea what their current liquidity would be, definitely took a hit though.
There’s def some basically free ones but worth it? like Kamala Harris 77% to be on the ticket oh sure lots don’t actually like her and she’ll put her foot in the mouth but nobody cares what the vp is doing unless it’s really really bad
biden finishes his term is -325 on bovada. I’ve had a few bets on there that were so long in the future they never actually got paid out so I try to avoid the long ones like that.
Ramaswamy at 14 cents seems like free money. Feels like the flavor of the moment and yet his average polling is only around 6-7%.
Man, if Ramaswamy wins the nom it will be the best possible case. No way MAGA derpers are going to turn out for a brown dude with a funny name. Grandpa Joe ships it with ease.
Shorting that has a nice built in emotional hedge. I really, really want to lose that bet.
Ramaswamy’s path to victory is Trump having a stroke and DeSantis being obliterated by Trump.
I think his only path is that they both have a stroke. And maybe a few others too.
Predictit now has Newsom at 25% to win the D nom. Seems absolutely crazy. Even if Biden dies or drops out, I’m not sure Newsome is that overwhelming of a favorite to get the nom.
3 Likes
I can’t think of a single other good option. He’s led the most progressive state in the union as Gov/Lt Gov for 12 years, he’s only 55 (a fucking toddler in democrat ages,) He has strong left wing stances on guns, abortion, and immigration. He speaks well and is pleasant to look at. Is there anybody else in the field that remotely touches his resume?
And no, you (the royal you) don’t get to say that Republicans will attack him for the literal hell on earth (republican phrasing) that liberal California cities are like. The Republicans will find something ludicrous to attack literally any dem opponent about.
All that being said, fucking pound the No at .25, holy shit.
Gretchen Whitmer?
Isn’t she running Biden’s re-election campaign?
I guess you are saying if he up and dies or hangs it up, sure that’s a good option. Didn’t realize she was really gunning for it though.
She seems weaker on guns than Newsom but on par with him on abortion, cannabis, and green issues. The idea of running another woman is scary to me for obvious reasons, but we as a country have to get past that at some point.
Oh, if you’re actually talking about a legit primary challenger to a seemingly healthy and interested Biden, that’s never happening. Not Newsom, not anybody.
If Biden announced today that he was off the re-election kick, what would the field look like, and who would be odds on?
Newsom would instantly be the betting favorite imo.
My best guess on the field would be Newsom/Whitmer/Kamala/a few congresscritters. You could also see someone like Kansas’s governor Laura Kelly possibly throw their hat in as well. Although I guess after looking it up she is 73 so probably not.
I’m sure Mayo Pete would run.
1 Like
You are purely betting whether biden runs or not on this one as if he doesn’t that is going to spike hard at least initially.
It would be a goddamn mess. I think Wichita has it mostly right.