The way you describe the dispute resolving mechanism, once the market tilts one way it should be self-reinforcing in that direction, right?
Well, that why I said “if” they were on the table. If it’s got to be a single person then obviously Mackenzie Scott would have won.
At one point on election night Trump got to like -800. It was an obviously wrong line but boy was that scary.
The election (with Trump especially) is like a Mayweather McGregor level public money donkfest, I got Biden to win the popular vote at like -600.
Also, “Yes” at 63 is good for you, right?
I remember when trump went to -800 on election night. I think mostly due to Florida? It was just like so loltastically horrifying that you could only laugh.
The votes are secret until at least 48 hours after the dispute begins, after which time you can begin revealing votes. Once revealed, a vote is locked in. Prior to that, it would just be the tenor of discussion on the discord which would be guiding prices. And yes, 63c is good for me. I’m still skeptical and think it will resolve no, but I’m not totally dead.
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I don’t think Trump ever got that short. He was like -400 at one point. I was monitoring prices on the night closely. The shortest point was not after Florida but after the Rust Belt began revealing and it looked bad for Biden because the mail ballots were being counted last.
You tempted to hedge at 63?
Chris I know this sucks for you, but as an outsider this is strangely interesting and kind of funny. Good luck! I think you should win.
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It crashed when the in person voting for the Midwest had trump with a big lead.
Wish I had cash online when all that happened. Biden +500 was free money.
Folks, you love to see it.
Also I got into a discussion with a guy on Twitter who was quite emphatic that the only possible legitimate resolution was No. It culminated like this:
https://twitter.com/ChrisVaust/status/1601412174899220480
https://twitter.com/tell_lie_vision/status/1601431004182245377
I think there was a case to be made for either resolution and maybe the fairest thing would have been to give everyone their money back, but the way the UMA Oracle works, there has to be an answer.
Come join me on Polymarket. The main risk is holding USDC. If that depegs you will lose all your money. I judge the risk of that as very small in the foreseeable future, but one can never say it’s zero. Other than that the risk of having money stolen is zero, because everything operates through on-chain contracts.
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how do you buy USDC? I don’t have any cryptoes at all.
Actually I am wrong to say the risk is zero because Polymarket are holding your money, so I assume they could run off with it when it’s just being held as a balance. If you’re paranoid about this transaction fees are low, so you can hold your funds on MetaMask and just transfer them when you want to bet.
- Install MetaMask. Add Polygon Mainnet to networks and switch to it.
- Log into Polymarket using it.
- Sign up to Coinbase and buy USDC for fiat. I don’t know what the limits are though, I got a friend to send me USDC.
- Send it to the address Polymarket give you, MAKING SURE YOU ARE SENDING ON POLYGON AND NOT ETHEREUM. Or, as I said, you can hold funds on your MetaMask wallet and make a transfer when you actually want to bet.
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Actually reading about it, Polymarket have a non-custodial solution (Magic) so they never have access to your funds.
polymarket isn’t legal in the US, they actually aren’t allowing US customers after paying a fine, yes if you are determined I think you could work around that but I do not bother.
You definitely could (transfer funds via MetaMask from Coinbase, use a VPN) but yeah understandable if you don’t want to.
Damn. I was just started to get excited about this.
On January 26 the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an injunction pausing the effectiveness of the February 15 deadline issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) to close existing PredictIt markets.
This just means the four markets they have open don’t have to close. Still can’t open any new markets.
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I haven’t really been keeping up with this, but I’m assuming we’re just talking about markets open to Americans. Is that not the case?