Sort of. I think the bet is EV+ in two ways. First I think Biden’s odds of being the nominee are understated. Second, I think even if Biden doesn’t run, Newsome is not a 75% favorite to get the nom which is the current implied odds. So I think buying Newsome No for 75 cents is even better than buying Biden yes at 68 cents - even though I think both are good bets.
I think he’d be the favorite, but it would be a mess with other decent candidates throwing their hats in the ring.
I think you are right. As always with these bets though you have to tie your money up for almost a year and then there is the predictit vig. Probably close in between that bet and just buying a 5% CD or something for the same period.
Michelle Obama is the 3d favorite on Betfair behind Newsom. Last price traded 14 so around 7%. Newsom 8 (~14%) and Kamala 18.5 (~6%)
I still can’t believe RFK was trading as low as 10 to be the D nominee. And that was well after all the anti-vax bs came out. He’s currently trading at 20 to win the next general election lol. Lowest traded 10. Completely absurd.
Michelle doesn’t want to do it but she’d be the best backup option and it’s not close I think is why she’s on there.
wtf is happening? New conspiracy theory?
Is PI still a thing in the US? I cleared out my funds years ago but that’s a tasty appetizer there
Yes, but I don’t think they can do new markets still. Right now only 13 markets left (all for this election), so probably not worth depositing just for that.
Ahh so these are leftovers from a couple years ago that just happened to get spicy?
People are still betting on Michelle Obama being the nominee… Like tens of thousands of dollars.
Totally not a cult.
Bronny James is attracting the most bets for NBA Rookie of the Year and tons of people put money on him to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. People are crazy.
That’s a special individual right there.
Was it limited to year
Polymarket has Biden to finish term at 71 cents. I would think it’s 95%ish. Am I crazy?
my dad said he wondered if biden will be like when a spouse dies after being together for 50+ years and you die soon after. like he’s been hanging on but now his body just goes.
6 months doesn’t seem like a long time, but 95% seems high.
Seems like a good value bet to me, Biden is about as healthy as you’d expect a man his age can be. Factor in the rake and the risk of Polymarket going down, I’d bet on Biden staying in office.
Why are people so obsessed with the idea of Michelle running? She has never expressed any interest, has zero experience, hasn’t been relevant in a decade. It makes no sense.
Great value here imo
It looks like a really right-leaning site so probably a lot of free maga money in there. they have Kamala at 39c PI has her at 47c
