my 2020 win was so bizarre. basically went hard on all trump lines at great prices, held them for a while, then when I saw the florida stuff coming in, trump stuff surged and while UP got despondent while commonwealth cheered everyone up, I had fucking TRIPLED my money on those, it offset all the dumb hedges I made that lost, then I fuckin cashed them all and went biden but not as much as I should have, and vrooooom.
that first night was magical for me. I will never get that high back gambling again.
the funny thing about this story is that there was moments that night where basically every idiot trump fish that binked hillary punting 2016 realized they got overconfident, but still were HODDDLLLLLLLLLLLL and then the slow crumbling over the coming months was incredible and the collective screeching
This I do not know, but my understanding is that the biggest syndicates might employ the sort of people with the skills to be quants at major hedge funds (and may have hired away people who were previously doing that).
How much does it cost to hire some math Ph.D’s and enough processing power for them to build complex models?
I mean the major market I played was Hillary running in 2020, that market was alive and profitable all the way almost till the actual election. It was literally impossible for her to run over a year before that, but there was so much delusion that it was kept alive
so yeah I would say probably all of them
my strat was basically to keep my ears open in all the nutty maga channels i followed, any time a major conspiracy was breaking I would buy up as much hillary yes as i could, sell at the top, then restock on my hillary no’s again. did this like 100 times lol. it was only ever a 10-15c swing each time except a few weird outliers. extremely predictable though once you watched the market for a while.
there was a funny period Where any time Hillary opened her idiot mouth I was making money, I don’t know what she was thinking but she was definitely saying crap like that could easily be interpreted as her running but you knew she wasn’t. I think she just liked people talking about it.
wow, i didn’t realize how big of a gambling market this can be. i thought it was too small for anyone to have as their primary hustle. lol me
quick question: how is politics betting going to go when republicans cheat in the state legislatures? has this ever happened? was there no action when the NC preacher congressman got caught in ballot fraud in 2018, and didn’t get certified/seated?
well it was big enough for a primary hustle, well if you’re willing to go full domer2 and go offshore with polymarket and some books and side bets you might still make a go of it as a primary, else it’s just a side dish at this point
I don’t know your last question, usually markets like that resolve that day though
Yeah. Ours is a group of friends first and foremost, partly for tax reasons (gambling income here is taxable only if you are “carrying on a business of betting or gambling”, which is poorly defined but makes us disinclined to do things like hire people to do work for us) and partly because our distribution of money is totally without legal basis and relies on trust. So we have a somewhat ad-hoc set of skills and do whatever work we can towards the common goal.
Like professional poker, it’s significantly less cool than it sounds.
There are people out there doing high powered math stuff but it’s less common than you might think. The biggest advantage you have over books as a gambler is that they have to state the lines and you get to pick and choose what to bet. If we had to put up lines ourselves, or if we had to bet every game, we’d get wrecked. If you try to build a general model for a whole major sport you are attacking books on their own turf. It’s easier to poke holes by demonstrating inaccuracy in how their model copes with some subset of games. This is more about coming up with ideas and trial and error than it is about having a Ph. D. in math. (Although we do, in fact, have a math major with an honors thesis in probability).
Honestly thought about not posting this because I think the current price is absurd (would price it more like 85c), but whatever, I figure there might not be anyone else on Polymarket anyway.
I have been gradually stockpiling money on this so as to avoid moving the price. They could pick Putin (who was already POTY in 2007) but I feel like that’s the only way I lose. Zelenskyy is way too compelling a story for them to pick some bullshit like “The Ukrainian Soldier”, Ukrainian resistance has been THE ongoing story of the year and this dude is the figurehead of it. That’s why I don’t think it will be Putin because the story is about his revealed powerlessness, relatively speaking, with the Russian military revealed as a paper tiger.
Elon Musk was POTY last year. I can’t even suggest any other candidates. I have seen “The US Supreme Court” as a candidate but I think that is pretty parochial, Time is an international magazine and previous POTY have included Pope Francis and Angela Merkel. It seems like a lame pick to me, like no shit SCOTUS has had a big impact on American politics this year, they always do.
Man, i miss the era of betting on Trump to lose the election in December of 2020. All these new bets seem so speculative with no real way to tell where the line should be.
Maybe but is it really that improbable that they choose “The Ukrainian people” or something 1 out of 3 (69c) or 6 times(85c)? They picked a group instead of an actual person 4 out of the last 11 times.
