The Intelligent and Pragmatic American Voters: They managed to vote out Trump and his election denying zealots while still giving the House to the GOP as a check on radical socialist Joe Biden. A huge win for moderate pragmatism!
Front cover:
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Has the Supreme Court ever been person of the year?
Time’s shortlist for Person of the Year is out:
Elon Musk
Xi Jinping
The Supreme Court
Liz Cheney
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
MacKenzie Scott
Protesters in Iran
Ron DeSantis
Janet Yellen
Gun Safety Advocates
Here is the market reaction:
Presumably this is because Vladimir Putin and “The Ukrainian People” aren’t on the shortlist. I feel like the exclusion of Putin in particular from the shortlist is tipping their hand that it will be Zelenskyy.
I can’t believe they will choose Musk back to back just because he bought fucking Twitter. I think SCOTUS is the only other realistic choice on the list. The others are frankly idiotic suggestions, real padding out the numbers stuff. I didn’t even know who MacKenzie Scott was.
Putting LIZ CHENEY on the list is real liberal brain disease stuff, my God. She should be shortlisted for most irrelevant person of the year.
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What did Janet Yellen even do?
The Hill says:
Yellen made history when she became the first female Treasury secretary in 2021.
This year, she oversaw the rollout of the American Women Quarters Program, which is designed to honor historic and trailblazing women on the nation’s official quarters.
Yellen worked this year to reassure Americans about the economy amid high inflation and soaring gas prices.
She’s a woman and she put some nice pictures on quarters. Like I said, “frankly idiotic”. I mean it feels like they’ve decided who it is and this is a fake shortlist. A real shortlist would have not just Zelenskyy but “The Ukrainian People” and Putin on it.
Also half the people on the list are people who haven’t really done anything yet but might one day (DeSantis, Iran Protestors, Gun Safety Advocates). I kind of sympathise in that if you told me I had to come up with 10 even slightly realistic candidates, I would struggle, particularly if you wanted me to not double-up thematically (i.e. not both Putin and Zelenskyy). Zelenskyy, SCOTUS, Jerome Powell, um… like I am already really struggling. I’d put ChatGPT on there now but it was a bit late emerging.
oh, I figured musk is a lock since the media dipshits love navel gazing and musk absolutely enables it. the fact that I didn’t know/remember that musk won last year shows how dumb and irrelevant TIME has become, who gives a fuck, fuck these shitbags.
It would be pretty hilarious if they picked DeSantis tbh.
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ANOTHER RIGGED ELECTION THEY STOLED IT FROM TRUMP HERP DERP
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Fuck. I bet the house on MacKenzie Scott.
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God, fucking Time and their stupid bullshit. If you click through you’ll discover that their actual choice is “Volodymyr Zelensky and the Spirit of Ukraine”.
This creates a problem, because here are the rules of the market I bet on:
If the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as TIME’s Person of the Year for 2022, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
Please note, that this market will resolve to “Yes” only if exclusively Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as the TIME’s Person of the Year. If, for example, “Defenders of Kyiv” or “People of Ukraine” or any other group is named as 2022 TIME’s Person of the Year, this market will resolve to “No”.
So how should this resolve? Was “exclusively Volodymyr Zelensky” chosen as POTY? Arguably not. But was “any other group” chosen as POTY? No. Like within the spirit of the rules I think it should resolve Yes, but in the letter it should probably resolve no.
This is a crypto betting site and there’s some kind of complex algorithmic dispute resolution thing I don’t understand. Essentially people vote with money on how the market should resolve, but the way it’s set up means it isn’t possible to profitably buy the result you want. You’re kind of betting on how everyone else says the market should resolve. That’s as much as I understand of it.
Stupid media bullshit. This is like when NYT endorsed “Klobuchar and Warren” or Time gave POTY to “Biden and Harris”. Just make a clear fucking choice, all this hedged stuff is so stupid.
lol it’s either an incredible coincidence that’s how it panned out or else there’s some insider trading going on.
I think they were just making clear that “people of Ukraine” wouldn’t be a win for Zelensky.
IMO Chris’s bet is a clear winner but do agree that the site’s language gives them an out.
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idk anything about Polymarket but I do hope this pans out for you. I mean right now at time.com, above the fold it literally says:
Also those terms are pretty interesting. Like “exclusively Zelenskyy is named” (current terms) is different than “Zelenskyy is exclusively named”… I think? I also feel like the context indicates they were going for “specifically” and not “exclusively”, but now we’re getting into vocab nittery.
There was no insider trading. There wasn’t really much money in the market and it jumped higher when the shortlist was announced.
This will be a test of the dispute resolution mechanic, will be interesting to see how it plays out.
The more I think about this the more tilted I am by it, of course in part because I’m probably going to lose thousands of dollars on a technicality, but also because it’s just so stupid. POTY is “a person, a group, an idea, or an object” and “the spirit of Ukraine” is arguably none of these. What it actually is is just a description of why you are picking Zelensky. It’s like saying “Time POTY for 2008 is Barack Obama And The Expansion Of The Horizon Of Possibility For Black Americans”.
Like we all understand that behind every great man yadda yadda but the whole point of POTY is identifying pivotal figures. If you’re going to hedge it every time with “and the concomitant social forces” then fuck it, just choose The Ineffable Tides Of History for POTY every year. What is even the point anymore.
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The dispute resolution mechanism will resolve in a few days. It’s an interesting process.
I have no idea if it’s possible to check how the voting is going or anything. There’s nothing I can do about it so I’m not going to spend time fully getting to grips with the nitty gritty.
I guess I can buy some $UMA and vote, not sure it’s worth it though.