https://twitter.com/abarber1/status/1560019349632520192?s=20&t=F5-7K8opEPMVGkgm6bMzyQ
im guessing this site is like PI where that 13% will end up being like 2% after all the fees.
Better off putting your money in I-bonds IMO.
The site itself doesn’t charge a fee but there is a 2% charge for the liquidity pool which is paid to the users providing liquidity. (You can provide liquidity yourself, if you want to). There’d also be some charges associated with buying crypto. The Polygon network transaction fees are low. There’s some (small but real) risk in holding USDC. And they say 12% annualized but the bet is through Jan 2023, so the actual payout is 6%. So yeah not great. Mostly I just liked the meme.
You can check out their other markets here:
polymarket isn’t legal in the US
*I think you can get around it with metamask but that is not financial advice and you didn’t hear it from me and I don’t do it
also seems pretty sure kalshi nuked Predictit so everyone hates them now it’s a rough site to use and don’t have many of the fun markets PI did.
why yes, predictit, I know I’m very good at this, but you are shutting down in like 4 months, so no, I will not be coming back.
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lol the disappointed Biden image is great.
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TBH though I am kind of avoiding election coverage next few months because I totally will get sucked back in if I spot something juicy
77.3% here. Who can beat it? I’m guessing we have a couple people over 80% in this crowd.
I would legit love to know how much money Unstuckers took down betting on the 2020 election. It had to be a pretty big combined score.
I took a lot of long shots and weird hedge plays, I’m not surprised by that percentage, it’s about what I expected. I forget now how much i was up. it was a fair bit. I had weird games I was playing with the hillary running in 2020 market.
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I would account for a pretty big percentage of it myself I think. I had well into the 5 figures on it.
IDK if I ever told this story on here but… I think I’ve mentioned I am part of a gambling syndicate, it’s what I do for money. We took a fairly large position on the 2020 election (on my sayso mostly) and one amusing sidenote was, so Australian corporate sportsbooks are fucking scumbag operations which exist to prey on gambling addicts and instantly restrict bet size for anyone who looks like winning. Another member of the syndicate had a Sportsbet.com.au account which was, on typical lines, limited to tiny bets, like $10. He called them up and said “hello I would like to place a large bet on Joseph Robinette Biden” they said “OK sir how much?” he said “100 grand” and they were like “sure no problem”. Goes to show how much money they must have been taking on Trump, that they were willing to balance their books like that from a known sharp.
Edit: We kind of regretted having such a large position on the night actually, not because we thought we’d made a bad bet but because so many other good bets were available over the night but we were so exposed we were loath to take more. I’m going to keep my powder dry a bit more in 2024.
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That one isn’t just an Australian thing!
Yeah. I know the UK is pretty similar, assume the US too. I really think the Australian books are a special breed though. There was an expose on a current affairs show here a few years back, had a gambling addict on it who got taken for a few million, he said when a guy moved from one site to another, like market competitors, this addict got called up by the guy and recruited to his new site with incentives. Like this dude took a list of the juiciest problem gamblers with him when he moved sites and hooked them all in to his new digs. That’s the level of predatory behaviour I’m talking about.
I often hear people referring to “gambling syndicates”, but I’m never quite sure how it generally works. Any chance you could give us a brief description?
What were some of these? Do you mean you could have gotten an even better price on Biden on election day?
Basically, a gambling syndicate is a group of people who pool resources to make bets that they could not make on their own. Usually, some provide the data analysis and others provide money, placing bets to get around sports book limits or hiring people to do so. How that is split up between members varies. In some places, one primary person runs the data operations. In others, it’s more of team effort.
So, the pooling of resources is not for variance reduction? It’s for making bets they can’t make themselves?
let’s pool our money and get rich.
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You can reduce variance by making more different bets and having an increased bankroll to do so reduces variance. But sportsbooks also limit how much individuals can bet, so the data analysis might not be worth the effort if you can only do a $20k wager by yourself, but is worth it if you can get ten people making that bet. (I have no idea what actual limits are.)
Really? How much does data analysis cost?