Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

Of course he doesn’t. He just likes violence and general awfulness.

I know, I know. But he is up front about that. And he did actually say “intensely curious”.

I would like to know just how well the results can be replicated.

Pretty crazy thread on scamming in prediction markets.

https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1555575884475662336?t=wSR6n99EY3aioqlQwkGN-g&s=19

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even the fish knew the comment sections were garbage and not to be trusted. like what? I couldn’t read the whole thing but it seems like pearl clutching.

the “will hillary run in 2020?” or whatever market that was, was one of the best examples of this, this guy had a full blown cult of believers that slowly lost faith over the course of the term and it was absolutely amazing to watch. I’d hesitate to call that a scam though, no more than bluffing in poker is. that YES market was inexplicably holding at 15-20 cents up to hours before it closed.

Comments section is one thing. Starting up a fake local union Twitter account, getting union members and state union to follow, posting normal for weeks, and then declaring a fake local strike to scam a prediction market is another. Maybe you didn’t get that far into the thread.

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shit i hope i dont get screwed

i hadnt logged on there in months - thanks for the heads up, they didnt send out an email or anything

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withdrawal was processed yesterday and money hit my bank account this morning. I guess PI does have their shit together but i wasnt gonna take any chances with all the other scams lately

people aren’t gonna deposit on there so who knows if they have it months from now

they still have no clue what they’re gonna do with the markets extending past feb

oh, trump NO to get arrested by sept 1 is 90 cents on PI if anyone left money on there, still looks like a free pickup to me.

I had just made my first Predictit deposit (so I could bet on Rick Caruso being the next LA mayor). Was able to sell my position at a $3 loss and get the rest of my money back.

Man, any time-based contracts (will x event happen by a certain date) are almost certainly going to edge towards zero the closer we get to February. If anyone has those, I’d sell now.

Withdrew everything. Had more than I remembered on there.

Gonna be hilarious if Trump gets indicted and the CFTC saved a bunch of you like $850.

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im throwin $100 on yes lol

like, if they got into his safe and dont indict him, he cant be touched at all, period.

eh, desantis basically gets all the trump shares,

seems crazy to assume it’s one or the other 2 years in advance but it’s hard to see how it’s not a lock for trump if he runs or desantis if he doesn’t.

Nah I meant the indictment markets. I assume some here were maxed on no and will pull all their money out to be safe since we’ve all seen poker sites go belly up and not have enough to pay out withdrawals.

I pulled out of that market cause of that but hard to see them doing anything by sept 1st to me. I don’t remember the timeline between fbi raiding shit like that and actual charges tho so.

PI wasn’t screwing around with money like some of those other sites but we don’t know how much they have and we do know a bunch hit that withdraw button and obviously if they run out you get nothing.

It seems possible that they were holding other charges until they executed the warrants tied to these documents, and could drop the other charges on him any day now while they go through this.

That would they will do if they are competent. If they charge him with lol documents and nothing else it’s going to feed right into the fox news narrative that j6 and all of trumps other actions were above board and this was just a politically motivated raid to stop him from running in 24

lol, PI going down may have saved me on this bet, I had it maxed out.

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