I may be down lifetime on legislative bets. I need presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races and primaries. That’s where I made my money there.
Sad day. Like a mini Black Friday.
yeah, only places for that later stuff is as far as I know now is offshore things that just had someone update with PI’s lines and may or may not be able to put much down
Which condition(s) do y’all think Predictit fucked up?
they tried to follow the rules
They were supposed to be a non-profit. Unless they were having monthly bonfires with cash as kindling, they had to be turning a profit with that rake.
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If you believe Predictit has been financially responsible, seems like there should be some money to be made from people panic selling to move their money off the site ASAP.
Well this sucks. Looks like I’m going to need to find a new hobby now that betting on Joe Biden’s approval rating isn’t a thing anymore.
Trump to win the nomination dropped by 6c and DeSantis dropped by 8c, so people are clearly selling out.
Likewise, my Biden not resigning position dropped from 81c to 70c.
It seems to me that there are three ways to close stuff like this out:
- Refund everyone.
- Change the end date to 2/15/23 and resolve it at 1 or 0.
- Wild west of wherever it’s at when the deadline hits.
Seems like 1 or 2 are the most reasonable, as #3 will lead to decreased liquidity and wild fluctuation in the markets. Thoughts? I’m obviously pretty biased on this one.
thanks brandon
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one of those cents was me on both of them, nobody knows how that is going to resolve, PI is dead in feb unless CTFC reverses course (edit–or it becomes more like kalshi). In fact I don’t either, maybe just let it go till that date and resolve it at whatever it is, if they’re even still alive then financially cause I wouldn’t risk that.
I like 3, but don’t tell people it’s 3 until the market closes. Or 3, but surprise people by doing it before the deadline.
Wouldn’t it be funny if this were all an experiment and they weren’t actually closing but wanted to test responses to this announcement?
Yeah I’d find it really hilarious to pay their exorbitant cashout fees for their amusement.
you’re saying they faked a CFTC letter?
No, the mad social scientist in me is saying it would be a fun experiment if they could do something like that.
I admit I’m also the kind of guy who sort of wants to see a reproduction of the Stanford prison experiment, which I understand is incredibly unethical, but I am intensely curious nonetheless.
Non-profit doesn’t mean they can’t make a profit. They just have to generate and use that money in a certain way (it’s confusing, so I don’t want to provide specifics for fear of misinforming).
I got out at 76c and withdrew. Hopefully they were keeping player funds segregated. No reason to think they weren’t, I guess…
What are you curious about in that scenario? Do you have any doubt how it turns out?