Ohio GOP nominee:
Vance 40c
Mandel 36c
We’ve got some Ohio people here, right? Is there really a 1 in 4 chance it’s not one of them?
Isn’t the more likely* scenario that Trump becomes Speaker of the House and Biden/Harris get impeached?
*Obviously still talking 1000(0)-1 longshots
Yeah there really isn’t any scenario where Trump becomes President, unless the military takes over the country and installs him.
Vance is ahead of Mandel? When did that happen?
Yes, that’s basically the only scenario. But it can’t happen this calendar year since the new Congress won’t be sworn in until January 2023
last poll was someone’s internal that suggested clusterfuck but vance shouldn’t be ahead of mandel (all the primary polling so far has been internals so grain of salt)
all of them have like 33% undecided so there’s plenty of room/time for someone to get there from scratch even.
edit–oh trump wanted some ad that was attacking vance taken down cause he thought it made trump look bad, that’s why vance is ahead in the wagering
Nah. You’re basically betting on Mandel getting into a car accident.
worth a lottery ticket?
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7559/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-by-Mar-1
I’d be surprised if he resigned by then even if he’s charged before then.
ie, filling up the no’s hard if he’s charged by then on the bump.
but if you think he’s getting charged before then buy YES then dump on the news
anyway your politics betting trade of the week ended up buying YES on hillary clinton to win the 2024 presidential nomination b/c some idiot in WSJ wrote an op-ed about it and morons on predictit bumped it from like 3 to 8 YES, so people made some nice money on that and I did not because how the hell.
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Kinda surprised Hillary isn’t higher. The Qanon guys must be running out of money.
Will Trump be indicted by April 1 is still at .15 if anyone wants 15% with a quick turnaround.
well can’t be a ton of crossover between that and reading the WSJ
.19 chance of Dems winning the Senate and Rs winning the House in 2022? Any reason I shouldn’t back up the truck to short this?
Tough Senate map for Republicans this year. In ‘18 the democrats lost Senate seats on net despite an 8 point victory in the house. 19 percent chance of the inverse happening sounds about right. It’s not likely, but maybe there’s a 19 percent chance of it.
I hate to say it, but is 8 actually crazy?
Clearly HRC wants to run again, these op-eds don’t keep popping up out of nowhere.
IDK I kind of doubt she does. The op-eds pop up because they’re click factories.
I think anything higher than 0 is crazy.
Nobody wants the one who actually lost to Donald Trump.
I maxed the NO so lol me if it pumps out of nowhere again
seems like there should be better investments than 8% on a bet that wont pay out for 3 years
5% fee to withdraw and I’m not gonna do anything with it in the meantime and it’s stacked with others in there.
who knows 8% in 2 years might look great ya never know
“Will Biden resign in his first term?” seems like a better place to park money long term.