“Will Trump be indicted by April 1?” is up to 20c on PI. Seems like free money.
any free 10c bonds on PI for 2022?
Hmm
Trump not indicted by Apr 1 is 79c
Beto not winning Texas governor 89c
Gaetz not resigning by march 1st is 97
Republicans to win the House is 84
I’m sure there’s a few more I gotta look and see where the #'s are at, lots of bond money just got freed up
edit–MO senate is at 90, but grietens might lower that number, he still wins easily.
IA might dip if pidgin man dies, also R still easily wins.
not touching the biden veto one, he could veto something really minor.
what odds
ah, just clicked through, 350-1. literally free money.
Tie your money up for a year to get 1:350 on it? Won’t you make more putting it into a high yield checking account for a year?
No, it sounds like the guy prepaid him as if he lost and Moneymaker has to ship him the money if Trump becomes president.
Lol.
moneymaker isn’t stupid to trust a trumper to pay a bet later
Interested in what odds people would not take Moneymaker’s side of the bet. 1000-1? 10000-1?
2023 you’d have to start thinking. With a fresh even more batshit crazy Republican house and Senate likely in place, do they immediately get to work undoing the 2020 election?
if they somehow get 67 in the senate (possible!) then yeah, Trump is probably president by like January 10th, 2023.
67 isn’t possible before 2024
ah yeah, true. if they get close enough it wouldn’t surprise me if some hardcore Q whackos start “retiring” senators like ossoff so R governors can appoint replacements.
looks like realistically (without massive cheating, at least), the GOP is probably “only” going to pick up four, maybe five senate seats.
I’m very bearish on Democrats going forward, and even I don’t see how you get to 5.
GA, AZ, NV, NH, then what? There just aren’t a whole lot of opportunities.
2024 is the bloodbath year.
CO is doable (I think odds are 20% R atm)–nope 26%
OR isn’t impossible. I’d have to relook at it.
jfc at 2024. That’s a bloodbath and they probably gain back some house seats.
if you’re wondering why AZ gov is that low for republicans, it’s b/c the likely R nominee is full blown trump/Q/etc
still probably wins