Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

Got up to 80 a minute ago and now it’s at 60. This is like GME level shit.

I ended up buying more and am now maxed out at an average of 57c, and decided to triple down by buying NOs in other brackets. Either busto or robusto, time to gambol.

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ugh infrastructure is popular enough it might actually pass, damn Grunching where’s the inside info when I need it

It can pass with 50-59 votes, right?

no, 60

I’m totally lost. The predictit bet isn’t whether it will go to a floor vote (not be filibustered) - it’s explicitly not a cloture vote. It’s whether it will get >59 yes votes in favor of the actual bill. Unless I am misunderstanding something very important about the Senate (I might be!), a bill that makes it to a vote and gets to 50 passes.

major bills (and the amendments for this one) in the senate need 60 votes to pass

unless they remove the filibuster for it, ie scotus but they haven’t, since they know they’re gonna lose the senate eventually

well unless they’re using budget reconciliation rules but I thought the parlimentarian threw that out

I haven’t been keeping track so maybe lol me here but I don’t think so on this one

(okay 50 passes but gets filibustered so same thing as not passing, need 60)

I feel like you’ve made some edits to this while I was typing, so I’ll just say that I’m pretty sure it’s possible that the bill can pass with fewer than 60 “yes” votes. If it’s filibustered, it never comes to the floor for a vote in the first place.

Edit: And I’m being precise in the context of this predictit bet: My view is simply that the bill can pass AND the “59 or fewer” bet pays off.

Yes. But because of the filibuster, that’s not happening.

If it makes it to a vote, that means it has 60+.

Nothing is going to simultaneously:

  • Not be filibustered
  • Pass with between 50 and 59 votes

EDIT: Basically what you said in the post immediately above mine. Possible in theory, impossible in practice

the odds of that have to be approximately zero

So are we all getting ass blasted here or what?

no, most likely they won’t have a vote at all by the deadline which means <59 wins at least that’s my guess–it’s gotta be by the end of friday and they’re not gonna get around to it today

fwiw I don’t believe 70 or more vote yes in any case but what do I know, I haven’t been crushing this lately or anything.

but I do expect this to get 60 votes now whenever it’s brought up so looks like we’re betting on whether the vote happens in time to me, great

Christians trying to pump and dump imo

https://twitter.com/CBNNews/status/1423384400721588226

Aaaand we’re in the 40s again. They’re not gonna get UC to accelerate this and it’s gonna shoot back up again.

I wish I could buy more.

Edit: Now 30c lol

1.2 trillion? Politico has an article out now that says 550 billion. Kind of a big difference! I’m pretty sure it’s actually the smaller number because I’ve seen it more often, but anyone know where the discrepancy comes from?

news hit dems trying to get the vote tonight

but it requires nobody to object which man you’d think some R would

Yea as I understand it they have to get universal consent to accelerate the vote. Why would Rs give them that?

The likely objectors are saying they’re fine with fast tracking it:

Several conservative senators have signed off on wrapping up as soon as possible, including Rand Paul of Kentucky, Mike Braun of Indiana and Mike Lee of Utah. Paul said the bill’s finances are questionable and he won’t support it, but “I’m fine to finish whenever people get tired of whatever we’re doing right now.”

(from Politico)

Cmon Josh Hawley (first and last time I’ll ever say that)

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republicans are going to enzi’s funeral

tomorrow

well, this is gonna be fun

doesn’t look like anyone’s blocking this I took a flier at sub 65 earlier but that might be dead too sad