Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

End of an era tomorrow, all the maga markets i think are eventually closing tonight. Not sure how much $$ I’ll leave on, if any.

There’s still $ to be had in cabinet vote markets, a bit degen but it’s fun

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Will we ever see a gambling opportunity like this again?

Never have I had the chance to risk so much money on events that either have already happened, or have 0% chance of happening (like Pompeo SoS on 3/1 etc.)

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Probably. Here’s to it being uncapped next time.

kalshi is supposed to be starting soon, similar to PI but cracking down on pumpers and shitposting in the comments and a way higher cap to wager

also legal like PI

kalshi is US only

Not sure if that helps or hurts.

it’s like getting rid of angleshooters, can only help

64 votes was 15c when the gavel hit on cardona (my feed was 10s behind, damnit people with CABLE are winning), 64-33 so 3 missing.

Good news for me though, ended up +1k over the other bracket.

Don’t think I’ve seen 15c to N/A so fast though on PI before. whoever had fastest feed and clicking button got over +4k beating everyone else.

I’d like to think we’re never going to see free money like the 2020 election, but these Q guys aren’t going anywhere, so who knows how nutty 2022 and 2024 are gonna get.

If it was uncapped there wouldn’t be free money

They’d be like the bookies and try to keep the sharp money out probably, you’re right.

Also LDO the sharps would fix the lines with bigger bet sizes.

Exactly. The people who make a living off this would have buy orders for 1,000,000 shares set to 97c and the price would never get below that

That’ll close the books on the 2020 election season, and possibly the great free money opportunity in history. I should do the work to figure out how much of this was profit made betting on this that have already happened.

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All the books got significantly more money on trump. There aren’t enough sharps to counteract every casual on one side.

Trumpers would’ve lost more money cause they would’ve pumped more in, you all forgot they were 100% sure they would’ve put their entire life savings and taken out loans to bet it.

I don’t know when that type of event will happen again, even if trump runs, they’ll just believe it’s rigged and less likely to wager.

I guess but who do you think that would be if not people like us?

idk, the MAGAbros were insisting that Dems were rigging the election and also betting on Republicans at the same time.

well either way if they take a credit card they better have a good way of preventing chargebacks

you know they all did on PI

the tweet markets?

Btw @wheatrich the questions below weren’t just me venting rhetorically, I am keen for your insights:

I managed to cut my losses way more than I thought possible, only lost a cool 150 lol though it shouldn’t been a free cool 100.

ok wait