requires swearing in, that’s reportedly this morning
which means it should resolve no
yes bettors are betting PI screws up basically (which has happened before)
if they haven’t resolved it yet, it’s because they’re trying to make sure, nobody kinda realized that was possible with their lol rules until way too late
i just maxed out, here we go again
I know I got a lot of cash I need to withdraw now but I’m really gonna miss that +7k green arrow
lol answer the other question plz it’s nagging at me
is the answer just “the voting markets are great, ppl are dum”?
I don’t know what you are asking me
other than read the rules–if there’s no vote at all in the timeframe, the first bracket is the winner. This is why the tai vote market for<67 is more than N/A because she’s getting a lot of bipartisan support.
People are dumb in the vote markets too while they happen–we’ve had three super absurd results in them already
Oh sorry I wasn’t clear, yeah I get that part about the first bracket and what not; no vote = 0 = 67 or lower.
I meant I couldn’t understand why the brackets like 76-78 were .80-NO right up until the vote was announced as going forward, then they immediately went to N/A.
I mean, I’m glad they were like that, it’s how I cut my losses bigly, I’m just still perplexed by it.
Just got bailed out hugely on the Neera Tanden OMB contracts. Had about $1300 combined on NO split between the next director contract and the 50-52 confirmation votes by 3/31 contract at ~.75 each. They were down to the .45ish range today before she got pulled.
I put a yes order in on 50-52 for 1000 shares at .50. 15 minutes later the story broke. I did not get my order pulled in time. It’s so much more painful than having already gotten filled before the story broke.
there’s cloture votes on many before hand and the next day vote is very close to it. That’s the reason, there already was a vote.
I had NO on tanden I got spooked off firing more because I’m dumb and listened to all the murk crap, R’s are not going to bail a dem out ffs. sigh, blew a few bucks there for no reason.
I’m a nit and keep wanting to withdraw. But even at 99c, I cant help myself at will Murkowski be a Republican on 4/1
Put some on Haaland No’s on 49 or few votes for 76/77 cents today. Collins and Manchin have both said they will vote yes. Seems like that has to be pretty high EV for that price.
Vote has to happen by 3/31 or you lose. She isn’t expected till like the last 8 days of the month at best.
Yeah I noticed that after reading fine print. Not sure how good it is then.
So on one hand, I do think “will Murkowski be a Republican on 4/1” is an obvious yes…
But this is the fine print
This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski’s continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
should I be worried about the possible nittery here?
lol, I backed up the truck on this one ages ago. Didn’t check the fine print, I probably should do that more often.
fwiw, I dumped when it hit 98 since a weird statement could make the line move.
Well I managed to sell out at 98c which is what I bought in for. Murkowski is 100% a Republican 4/1, but wasn’t willing to risk 800 versus a case of beer for the fine print wording.
holy fuck this dude
despite multiple people explaining it to him, he doesn’t understand neg risk and still believes PI owes him 22.6k because he bought a bunch of 99 NO’s
and by bunch I mean like 50 in each market or fewer
