I bailed out of Granholm, it stopped feeling like free pennies. The argument that the vote wouldn’t happen was compelling.
fuck what just happened to the Granholm 67 or fewer votes?
all the ones that don’t have 3/31 are end of 3/1 markets.
take a breath calm down, everyone has done something like that on PI.
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Granholm’s cloture vote happened. The market reflects the result of that vote since it’ll be close to that vote. I got distracted by topshot packs.
I’m calm lol just being melodramatic. I probably SHOULD BE tilted though as it’s bad to get desensitized to money like this.
Right, I get it now, I thought that market was for the vote WHENEVER IT MIGHT HAPPEN IN A FAR OFF DISTANT FUTURE, so when I saw the other market move I figured the trend reflected that, as in, the vote was happening and it wasn’t going to be 67 or fewer.
So I basically shoved after that like a fish when I could’ve made 10% just off the NOs I already had.
But thanks for bumping the thread, I would’ve made a cool hundred american dollars if I hadn’t done some fancy play donk maneuvers.
p.s. My plan was to leave a little on here and grab the pennies here and there but I’d actually almost forgotten about that.
you aren’t living unless you’re in the vote markets
Just to be clear, those are the ones we’re talking about, the “How many Senators, 67 or fewer etc” markets?
correct, the vote is live and there’s no cloture had amazing moments
like the winner being 1c forever because people didn’t realize a bunch of senators weren’t gonna vote
and even after it was over you could still get 90c for minutes
cloture ruins that though a bit, 67 missed a dem so ??? depends who’s all there
granholm vote is now thursday at noon
cardona cloture vote after
cardona is now fri or mon? raimondo tuesday? some tight markets
What’s funny is I’ve totally forgotten the free money on this site even when not in MAGA cycles, because I’m trying to figure out an explanation for the market behavior and what I did that doesn’t involve “well, duh, they’re dumb, that’s why it’s free money”.
My thinking was, there’s an EV for each slot and an EV for the entire thing not happening. So it might be for the yes side if it was definitely happening,
0-50 : 33%
51-100: 33%
101-150: 33%
but based on the chance of it not happening in time it might be,
0-50 : 20%
51-100: 20%
101-150: 20%
etc. Right, and my thinking was the proportions would still remain the same how could they not. So when the ‘67 or fewer NO’ ticked into the 90s I just instinctively bought it thinking I was closing out the pennies before N/A.
There must be something I’m missing right? How could it be 74-76 YES 22% when the vote might not happen but when it looks like it definitely will, 1%?
lol and that’s the one I bailed with a 3 penny loss
don’t know why I didn’t max the two cardona low brackets and didn’t look at it Punted $50 live because my brain cells weren’t functioning.
+700 on that market and I’m beating myself up over it because I can’t afford to leave anything on the table now, especially when I was confident (actually believed under 64 would happen, but also had B2 of course, no everything else), pressure is really building up on me now with everything else tanking :(. Don’t know why I didn’t turbo max B1/B2 or yesterday or today or while the vote was going on, like what am I doing and why am I on that site if I’m not taking all the +EV I can.
Still a very good month, but man I left at least 10k on the table I think, too many bad lines out there in moments I just didn’t fire the clip.
Power went to where she was before since the foreign committee has something on the third and they’re assuming it’s her but there’s a ton of people confirmed they have to get to (even after all the cabinet, there’s more confirmed waiting), but they could still do it before deadline.
edit–according to a PI comment, there’s 21 of them atm not counting her. 83c optimistic but possible.
on the plus side, I’m back on the oracle leaderboard this week and should still be on it next week, TAKE THAT REGS
anyway burns NO still free penny literal in CIA
monday schedule is out cardona vote, raimondo cloture
boy that cardona market, how does anyone know when they’re sworn in. I guess everyone’s assuming tuesday also PI not to blow it
Granholm is getting sworn in today but the cardona vote is very late.
How many Yea votes in the House for the American Rescue Plan?
every bracket is one vote in the house oh my, elite potential here
tomorrow? when is this
Goddamn that’s degen as hell. I’m in.
can’t find a house feed so I’m spending a late friday night finding out if my free channel section on the TV has cspan
this is better than normal at least
answer is no but I have some pokergo crap on here
cspan site worked (it usually doesn’t)
so uh, if this goes on much longer they may vote when PI does maintenence
ended up falling asleep and missed everything but was way too tired to risk significant cash cause I make mistakes when tired
party line except 2 dems voted no because of course they did. I should’ve just bet no bmax–that was probably free pennies.