Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

damn I woke up too late and missed the fun where things like witnesses moved to 99c and are 1c now

mitch voting no is nice to wake up too tho

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I’ve been the number 1 Mitch will convict man on this site and I had 500 yes when it collapsed. Bought another 5000 yes at 2c because PI always overreacts. Sold the 5000 at 8c on the bounce! I made money on Mitch to convict!

PI was two people ahead of me sadly and also lagged hard at one point but impeachment results

Losses, Burr, Cassidy (couldn’t get this out after Burr in time damn),Murk (small), Toomey ($8 lol), under 55
Wins, NO on 60+, NO on 55/56, date of vote (WHY DID I PUT ONLY TEN DOLLARS IN THIS ARGHHHH), Mitch (BIG WIN), Portman, Thune, Grassley

+$750 I think, not good or anything–read something yesterday where someone thought burr wasn’t a lock on the floor and didn’t get out of it whoops. not maxing manchin/romney and nothing on them instead of 100 something profit but I’m dumb sometimes.

also big thanks to whoever gave me 99’s in markets that closed within 30 minutes

senate recess (LOL) then
Thomas Greenfield cloture (not a cabinet market but UN amb vote market, which still counts on PI’s cabinet vote total market)
Vilsack 23rd

so this makes 9. Risking a hangup but I don’t think that’s gonna happen so I’m in 7 or 8 NO for the pennies.

21 or more with the recess is impossible.

This sound a whole lot like AWice supposedly making a ton of money betting on Trump in 2020.

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Today’s the day bois, the day that abe lincoln became secretary of state and I can GTFO out of PI forever*.

Of course hasn’t settled yet.

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a boat load of pennies out there in a week, plenty of people with 0 chance still 98/99 NO’s in the cabinet markets.

Raimondo sounds like vote is Tue or Wed to me (may bail out of this in the vote market in case it’s monday), Cardona might be monday. taht market is interesting since he has to get sworn in by the deadline for that to be yes, why it cratered hard today (I sold my NO’s too soon sigh)

everyone else (except granholm on thursday or so) is already lock no basically, schumer would’ve mentioned it by now

I missed vilsack vote market because of topshot damnit

+5k month on PI, outside of more cabinet vote markets, gonna slow down hard now.

Taking power no to 80 too in USAID, there’s so many people they still ahve to get to before her

13 or 14 98 NO also free now in the total cabinet market, damn I ended up with +$125 in that market just simply taking free money current number is 9. they’re not getting to 13 by the end of the first

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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary

?

if raimondo vote is monday that market is live (even though she still needs to be sworn in for her other market to resolve yes)

anything after that it’s completely dead the first bracket wins.

Seems like it’ll be tue or wed tho to me, but there’s no confirmation yet and I got burned on the initial cardona news a day or two ago so.

I did max it earlier, so if you lose a lot, well so did I

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ohhh gotcha, i see why it’s not free money

it probably still is looks like cardona is going ahead of her, ragan isn’t 99 yet because they could do that any time they wanted to but we’re dealing with schumer here.

Haaland was a lock NO a long time ago and still is at 99 so PI gonna PI

The individual vote markets are the $ now. Missing vilsack was a killer I just wandered in and went oh shit that happened already and ended up +$10 cause I had bmax no for a few bucks as a placeholder.

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unless my mind is playing tricks on me those 98/99s i was just looking at that you mentioned all shifted to n/a

except

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1

also parked some here

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary

mind is playing tricks on you, I just looked they’re all still there in their individual markets.

also granholm cloture vote isn’t until 4pm tomorrow apparently which puts vote at earliest very late thu night? which has moved that market the other way a little. Schumer is just taking his sweet time. Friday they often don’t vote, Monday moves the market to idk 75/25? I don’t know when she’d get sworn in or how we’d actually know about the exact time for that matter. Still think it’s Thursday night but now not 98/99 worth. maybe 95 or something idk.

So of course power goes up because I have no idea why. I wouldn’t pay over 10 yes for that.

wild pump and dump in granholm happened, very briefly fell to 88. I didn’t get it, sad.

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The Power market is 3/16 not 3/1, FYI in case you missed that. I missed it the first time around.

I know but she hasn’t had her committee hearing yet and they’re already very backed up in the senate floor. Even if they decide to push Fudge/Haaland and OMB to the very back of the line it’s tight at best.

basically even if they get through the main ones in week 1 of march and push back others–she could leapfrog but it’s a long line.

Wait so am I gonna lose 850 on a .98?

I don’t think so but you might have a big down arrow on it at one point.

which then you get to decide if you believe it happens to sell and rebuy (which is more $) or bail out of it entirely and eat it

you can actually do it now at 90 for a little more of a gain than otherwise.

I have .97 shares (lol) but didn’t come close to maxing. Don’t know what I’m gonna do yet, just wait and see where the wind blows for now.

The PI pumping no argument is that vote doesn’t happen thursday so it’s monday due to lol senate isn’t gonna work on a friday and then clusterfuck could resolve no.

I believe the vote happens thursday afternoon->evening. but am I 98%? no, we’re dealing with chuck schumer here

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seeing the power line move in my favor 10 full cents after I post about it in here feels good. Free hundo I gave out with that one. I still don’t think ti’s worth 10 but don’t blame anyone for taking the profit since nobody knows what’s gonna happen that 2nd week.

Granholm still seems on track for a Thu vote, the cloture vote is at 4pm est which will greatly narrow the market on that vote, since cloture and real votes end up being close. and nobody actually knows how that vote is gonna go. It’s not like becerra (about no R’s) or cardona (I think he’s under 70, just wish I put in more when it was very cheap).

cloture on raimondo and rouse hmmm