Any thoughts on Mcconnell yes to vote to convict at 37 cents? I feel like that’s a good bet and that it will at least go up before the trial because he’ll make some more intentionally vague statements.
I feel 67+ to convict is a better bet as it’s cheaper. I don’t see McConnel voting to convict unless he has 67 votes.
fair.
50 or fewer and 51-52 convict votes seems pretty free to bet the “NO” side on. I guess with 50 or fewer there is some risk that they dont vote before the contract expires, which makes 50 or fewer resolve YES. I’m staying away from anything else for now. “No” on 65-66 feels pretty free as well since if they get that close surely McConnell is on board and surely they would hit 67, but I’m not confident enough to bet on it just to win $45 at risk of $850
things that already happened are 93c
or 98c to resolve soonish again I see
though the latter is a play to get the rubes if guiliani gets pardoned
Massivelly grunching, but will Ossoff and Warnock be “sitting Senators” by 1/21/21? If not, then it would seem that by the language of the contract it should be graded as R win.
I think they’re both getting sworn in on the 19th, aren’t they?
Is “sworn in” the same as “seated”? I have no idea.
Yes, I think so.
Ok, thanks.
that market is a complicated mess
yes they have to be seated by the deadline and it’s gonna be tight
if you’re wondering when they get seated–PI has those two markets as well. It’s tight. GA has to certify, get whatever docs to gov to sign, air mail said docs to DC, seat said senators.
probably lean R I’d guess
Actually, Washington Post has them getting sworn in on the 21st. Wow it is going to be tight.
It’s currently 4 cents to buy the no. That seems really +EV given everything.
not sure what market you’re referring to here
Here’s another problem: if the contract stipulates 12:00 AM, is that before the first minute of 1/21 or after the last minute of 1/21? My understanding is the former, in which case (if WAPO is accurate), then no should be a lock.
Padilla should get sworn in on the 20th, that was one of the possibilities to fail that market
it can happen on the 20th still, that is the expected certification date I think, it’s not impossible they just lol and swear them in a little early, but idk the rules.
Clean sweep. Are we talking about different markets?
yes, clean sweep is different rules
imo don’t buy the 4c
I guess reading them it’d be the biggest rules cuck ever if they held nov 3 to a literal sense instead of counting the runoffs but PI would’ve resolved that by now you’d think
Lol, ok thanks.