So if im reading the PI rules right, bettors are giving Trump close to a 60% chance to be convicted? 15% in Trump’s term and another 45% in Biden’s first 100 days. Me likey
Correct. If so much as one senator dissents, Senate is not called back into session prior to the 19th.
Mitch gets the best of all worlds. Removes Trump from future chicanery, consumes a not insignificant period of Biden’s first 100 days and gets four years to figure out how to graft the MAGA base back on the GOP voting block.
I’m very close to maxing no conviction in his term.
If McConnell and Schumer agree, this thread argues that the Senate can bust the pro forma with a majority vote and get the ball rolling as early as Friday. McConnell’s statement from last Friday seems that he was disinclined to do so, but more recent reporting suggests there’s some non-zero chance McConnell wants to punish Trump.
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1348778073097973762
edit to add–
this would be a possible resolution of this warp speed version. Theoretical only and not reasonably likely in the least.
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1349137164165128194
5 confirmed GOP right now in the house for impeachment–I’ll guess 242. 249 is probably too hard.
so uh this didn’t age great, 242 now looks too hard
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2024 republican nominee market is up, that one is gonna be wild.
And looks like McConnell’s memo from last week holds, no business before the 19th, no trial before the 20th or 21st at the very earliest.
It did hit 20c briefly so hope you managed to get out before it plummeted. I loaded up a bit more when it got that high. Think I’ll just wait the extra week to get the full value as don’t see any other great short term bets right now.
Yup, I got out and hopped back on the NO train. Stable genius here! Ahh betting on Republicans to be Republicans is always the smart bet.
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want so bad to max mitt no at 96 for 2024 potus but 3+ years a couple other guys have no shot but they could get pumped at some point
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Def buy 1 share in this market and in some others as well so you can avoid being locked out btw.
i got my one share on Trump No. In these markets, though you need to get a share on every single contract to not be locked out, right? At any rate, Trump contract would fill up first so I’m ok for now
I only made 70, I’m bad at this shit.
Lmao. That was wild. I got filled at 56c for the winner 1 minute before the gavel. Made around 1500$, but was down around 700$ from earlier on this market from panicking when McConnell made his statement
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Exact same thing happened in the 25th market yesterday btw. Made peanuts then, but this time I was ready
I haven’t followed all day. I saw impeachment market was just settled, but 229-232 votes is still only at 99c? Free money I assume? It’s only 1c, but should settle very quickly.
Ah I reread the rules, and I guess technically if they impeach him again before 1/20 and it gets more votes, it could change. So will have to wait 1 week for that 1c.
they’re not going to do that
Yea I know, but I was trying to figure out why it wasn’t N/A, but I guess it is now.
Should I be getting out of the Senate to convict by Jan 20, NO market at 97c? I mean if Trump goes nuts next week, there is a small chance that the Senate does end up convicting him before his term ends right? Even if it is Jan 19 or whatever?