The people on the Betfair telegram are still discussing today what’s gonna happen when Trump gets inaugurated if they’ll get their money.
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just rebought Betsy Devos NO at 96
well if that loses I withdraw everything and quit
never thought it’d leave N/A good lord
These NO for cabinet picks are getting tempting at 93 or 94c. I already got in Pompeo when it was up to 89. Hmmm. Devos at 98 now though.
The clean sweep market is still trading at 95c. There’s still a 5c baked in for MAGA believers. That will pay out sooner than cabinets and is literal free money, idk why it hasn’t been resolved yet.
They already paid out Biden POTUS, all the Senate races, and the House market. They may be waiting for inauguration but there isn’t really any reason for them to do so if they didn’t wait on inauguration in the POTUS markets
Edit - same for Net Change in Senate seats, and who will control the senate. These are all 95c dollars that should resolve in 10 days maximum.
Someone explain why No on D House, R Senate is not free money?
I get that there is a delay in appointing new GA senators, but isn’t Senate 50-48 right now. Thus, so long as Kamala becomes VP, “D House, R Senate” should resolve no (D House, D Senate would also resolve no).
It’s spiked to 27 cents today, so I am confused.
based on my reading of PI comments, Unlike Perdue, Loffler’s seat isn’t expired. If that is true, it is 52-48 now and would become 51-49 when Biden becomes pres due to VP swapping from Pence to Harris. Warnock would need to become a Senator to get below 51R.
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Thanks - that explains it.
“Will Dump file to run for prez by end of 2021” priced at $0.34 currently. Isn’t this basically a lock?
I thought it was gonna happen immediately but backed off after the capitol got sieged
also he can get banned now
In light of the siege, I would file ASAP if I’m in his shoes. Obviously he is not a rational actor but, the incentive is there.
My understanding is the Senate would need to vote separately from removal from office to preclude him from running. That has to be <3%.
banning is just majority vote if there’s a conviction, but yes conviction isn’t a lock whatsoever
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looks like they’re gonna try half and half strategy on impeachment to get biden’s cabinet in there
the timeline is tight where a few might well miss the market deadline
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Banning doesn’t necessarily stop him from filing. I’ve read it’s an open legal question whether the Senate actually has the authority to ban him from running again. So I think he would file and then the courts would sort of if he could actually be a candidate. Not sure exactly how PredictIt would resolve in that situation.
Does anyone here actually use Polymarket?
yeah but haven’t withdrawn yet
I will not have much money on there though, probably too small for the gov’t to notice yet but it could crack down on them
The same reason all of Trump’s cabinet picks are trading at 5c+. There is still delusional maga money. And because some people are selling out to free up money to play impeachment markets.
Fees and whatnot.
This an interesting one too
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1