I started the day with mostly wrong positions, made a profit but was really hoping for a big pay day if 6 objections came in. I started the day maxed in 6 objections at 8c, started hedging throughout the day and was completely out before the coup started. Played some other stuff probably mostly breakeven or made a little at the margins. It looks like I would have been wrong even without the coup as it looks like there would have been 4 objections with no coup. WI, GA, AZ, PA.
I was on the No side of that market, expecting Perude to go full Trump and stall Ossoff getting seated, and Mitch to urge him on so they could stall into Biden’s term and delay his cabinet appointments. But once the coup started I sold out. I don’t Mitch would be on board anymore and Perdue would take a lot of heat now for it. I’m not convinced enough to buy Yes yet though.
Nicely done. You had a much, much better read on the objection markets than I did so I’m glad you were able to turn it into a profit. I’d love another crack at markets like these but I can’t see anything like it coming around for a while.
damnit I didn’t max trump pardoning himself this morning, forgot about it
odds are probably right now, he goes in waves of what he remembers or forgets about
the biggest source of profit on PI other than inside info is getting information first to the market, I’ve lost that battle. Then pumping shit to idiots, then whatever domer does.
and scooping up free money from the idiots
ie, trump cabinet 3-4 cents still, will go to 1-0 after inaug
my cabinet not yes’s, with dems getting 50 this idea got wrecked but becerra, while HHS sec will probably get in quick, R’s will protest this one that’s usually enough to spook the market a bit. Tanden less so even though they don’t like her. Haaland/Fudge may wait till after the deadline due to house margin and that special election to replace one of them they’re taking now for another position isn’t till march. Those two are wait and see for me atm rather than allin.
btw, Pete’s individual market pays out whenever it happens, not march 1st.
Dammit I didn’t think we’d ever see locked markets again, but I’m locked out of the Trump to complete first term market. I did get a lucky bink, just maxing self pardon like 10 minutes before the NYT story dropped.
Looking at it, it seems the best bet is to buy No for D House, R Senate. That was you win so long as Wanock is seated by the 21st. Doesn’t matter what Perdue does since he’s already out, all him fighting means that the seat stays vacant and 50-49 in R’s favor does not count as control per PredictIt Rules.
Yea these scenarios come up a lot on Predictit, where No on one market is almost the same but actually better in some technical or narrow scenarios than Yes in another market, and it’s almost never priced correctly. No on a D candidate is almost always cheaper than Yes on the opposing R candidate.
I’m still not sure I like it. Georgia elections officials and Mitch both seem pretty intent on putting this thing down quickly. They seem motivated to move as quickly as possible.
I was trying to figure out why R house R senate is 1-2c but I guess there’s a rumor of a covid outbreak in the house because lol masks
also dumped chao NO’s in transportation since I don’t have anything stacked with it.
I just got into this full market by repeatedly spamming buy orders.
wow I’m shocked it closed too, there’s a lot more newbies on the site these days.
if you haven’t maxed devos NO’s they’re still 98 get in before it’s N/A (or sell at 99 tonight/tomorrow whatever you wanna do)
The only cheap maga right now is Haspel, she’s still at 93-95 as of this post.
he still hasn’t nominated anyone so she might not be insta gone is why
https://twitter.com/PolymarktWhales/status/1347301960022712325
I guess the second insurrection might work out, they won’t see it coming
2 Likes
cabinet back up to 4-5 cents for some of them
even I screwed up thinking they all bailed by now
If you don’t want to deposit there’s no reason not to bail on some, max yes Impeachment, and then just get right back in.
From a friend of mine:
Have at it.
i’m gonna guess it’s something insane like 6-1. I don’t understand the difference between 1 and 2 though. Isn’t 1 just a subset of 2? The real question, will villain pay up on the bet?