first one
One last surprise there with Rick Scott voting aye. I wasn’t in that market anymore thank god.
Which of the Biden cabinet picks are free money now? All of them? I’m guessing some there may be a risk of the March 1 deadline?
So WI was going to be objected as well to but the senator withdrew. It would have been 4 objections without the coup attempt.
Objection markets settled an hour ago and were based on that signature page posted upthread. At one point this morning the “Johnson signs objection” market tanked down into the 60s before rebounding back to 90ish. Someone made off pretty well there.
“Will Trump get impeached again” market now open. Currently hovering around 50/50.
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did we see if anyone else signed PA? Lol they probably closed them too soon.
WI didn’t even send the fake slate, ffs.
The “# Senators objecting” market closed at Max due to the Arizona result, so # of PA signees wouldn’t have changed it. For individual senators I’m not sure, but I don’t think anyone new signed PA except Hawley.
Trump removed by impeachment at 10% seems about 8% too high.
will move up if the house passes it, that’s why
Side note, I got lucky as fuuuck yesterday. My positions going in were ~X to win ~8X on bets that would turn out to be entirely losers (at one point I had “no” objections everywhere + “one” objection as a backup + Hawley “no” + Johnson “no” + “none” senators voting to reject + “<20” house voting to reject–like I was literally wrong across the board, could not have been more wrong). When all the dust settled, I had lost around 10% despite holding completely wrong positions, many of which I didn’t exit until after they were definitively incorrect, like after Arizona had already been objected to.
It’s just insane to me how much free money exists on that site, both for betting on past events and for people who can front-run swings based on news and tweets.
Question on balance of power for Senate and House, it says:
"In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that the outcome of this market is determined by the balance of power at the End Date, January 21, 2021 at 12:00 a.m. (ET).
In the event that neither party has 51 or more sitting Senators at that time, then neither party has Senate control as defined in the Rules, and all contracts will resolve as No."
Does this mean that if Ossoff isn’t seated on January 20, all bets resolve as No? If so, what are the odds R’s pull a Franken and refuse to seat him. Is it pretty easy to do?
edit: What about Loefller, does she keep seat if they refuse to seat Warnock? So R’s would keep 51?
a lot of that was total chaos but yes I profited on johnson NO’s selling out of them
some people will pump in the comments and since new blood is around, it works.
I just got boned on raimondo, insiders moved both her/walsh hard yesterday and I didn’t realize that’s what it was cause I was distracted with every other market.
I got lucky to be up, if I was good enough to flip stuff it was a huge day for those people.
that’s why it’s not a lock in that market
GA final certification date is also not till after that date, so if they go to the deadline it’s a no.
perdue might fight it too, we’ll see.
I don’t think they’ll block or fight warnock when certified though.
Franken was just hundreds of votes, warnock won by nearly two full points.
Wat?
So if Dems hold the White House and the Senate if 50-50, it doesn’t settle at Dem Yes? That’s some wild shit. Thank god I didn’t have any money on that.
Edit: that’s not the case. They are appropriately including the party of the Vice President if it’s a perfect tie.
Yea after yesterday’s chaos I was looking for free money outside of Trump Cabinet "no"s and considered that one until I read the fine print. Not willing to bet on the GOP seating Dems in any hurry.
well it’s simple, it is if they are seated by a specific date, which ossoff/warnock may not be
the other markets are what you stated
it’s on the schedule for the 19th if they’re certified by then which would resolve yes
It also states that VP counts, so if both Ossof and Warnock are sworn in Dem “yes” would be the winner when you add Kamala (though you also have to assume Kamala’s replacement is sworn in…)
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