Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

Took too long for me to realize just do the opposite of what you think is the play on this site, eventually the news cycle will flip you into gains and you can just sell then. Hillary skyrocketed, everyone getting arrested skyrocketed, etc.

Not gonna lie, this movement today has me a little shook.

Meanwhile in the real world a bunch of Senate Dems poured cold water on the idea of another HRC run.

gotta say, I hope that I am wrong, but I feel like all of you guys betting on impeachment are betting with your hearts and not your brains. Dem leadership has shown over and over that they are either incompetent cowards or are complicit, and I am not sure what indicates that has changed.

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Yea, but still, betting on articles of impeachment by 3/31 still seems pretty safe-ish to me.

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Hillary back up to 22%. Just letting you all know.

Clinton running is now my biggest loser.
Feels like I’m betting against my dad.

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to my chagrin, Tulsi gets another qualifying poll. (this is also for december and yang/klob got one too [the 1/4 needed they all missed 6%])

I blame Hillary for this bullshit. Why don’t I just stick to the obvious stuff whyyyy me.

It keeps swinging back and forth, but the conspiracy folks aren’t going to give up on it until at least past the early filing deadlines… Quite frankly they may not give up til the convention. It’s a good long play, but there is a very small non-zero chance of losing.

Oh, read the comment section. They’re twisting themselves into pretzels as to why the filing deadlines don’t matter.

I feel an overwhelming sense of sadness but also a weird glee when i read that comment section. I cant believe there are so many hopelessly deluded people out there completely devoid of critical thought.

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lol, the die-hard Q guys aren’t going to bail out until the next POTUS is sworn in. This is going to be one of those markets where you really have to wait to get paid.

Haven’t read it yet, but off the top of my head I could see it being theoretically possible that she jumps in late and tries to take it at the convention if Biden falters late in the process and has a significant number of delegates. Absurdly unlikely, though.

There are four+ backups for centrist Dems if Biden totally implodes. There’s like almost no scenario in which I can see Hill jumping in.

I agree. I think her people could argue that she’s more deserving of the nomination than like Buttigieg or Castro with <5% of total votes, so it depends heavily on how others perform - I expect Buttigieg to get more delegates than that if he stays in long enough. If nobody gets enough delegates to lock it in, shit can get crazy in a contested convention.

sigh, Tulsi’s gonna make november all because hillary clinton couldn’t help herself from tweeting. Gonna be awhile before I make money on this site now with their fees, sigh.

There wasn’t an edge betting against her because of the stupid bullshit she says, this is america we love that, dumb me.

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Yea I got, got in the Tulsi market as well.

Hillary Clinton 23% after bill said “may or may not”

That guy in the comments that has like 10k posts in there, SmokeyJoe, may be legitimately mentally ill. I worry about his descent into madness as this becomes more and more obvious. He’s gone all in on it, supposedly, for a big amount. But he seems like generally a liar so who knows.

What do you guys think of Will Trump be Impeached By End of 2019? I loaded up on yes at an average of .47, but I’m down so far and it appears the Dems may be moving too slowly to finish it by the end of the year, especially given holiday recesses.

I bought in at 49 and sold out at 47 realizing that. I have no idea. Christmas was the target last I heard but there can’t be much to do to get there, R’s aren’t even denying it they’re just going with the old, nobody cares suck it libtards. I don’t know that they’re wrong.