Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

7+ objections ran up above 30c at one point but is back down to 13c now. The objection markets are going to be wild for the next week buckle up.

I see 6 unless they just object to everything.

The people up in 2 years follow but I’m not sure if they’ll write it down.

It will fail still (lol trump cabinet $ on fire, but it’s gonna be a shit show)

Betting no on 13+ objectors seems like easy money to me, unless you think Mitch has completely lost control of the ship.

well it’s in writing, there will be more than 13 objectors verbally. Even in the senate because enough are up in 2 years. Mitch definitely still doesn’t want to do this but Hawley wants to be president so here we are.

I’m working on selling my No on None position, and might take a flyer on them talking Hawley or whoever else out of formally objecting and just doing some verbal bullshit theatrics for the maga idiots that don’t understand the difference. Similar to trump signing the covid bill but writing a bunch of shit in red ink on it that makes no difference but really impresses the maga crowd.

Hmm I get the feeling Hawley is going to lone wolf it and be the only one. lol @ me in 6 days though I guess.

Well that market is if they vote. If they are forced to vote and put it in record (because Hawley or whoever else formally objected) it could get weird, where people are calculating their primary in 2022.

well regarding votes then Paul yes, Rubio yes, Hawley yes is 3 right there. Tubs is 4. I’d have to start thinking cap after that but yeah Cruz probably

And to be clear the market I was talking about earlier running up above 30 and back down was the “How many electoral certificates of vote will be formally challenged in Congress?” market.

I bailed out of my NO’s at even figuring once Arizona is objected that is gonna fly upwards pretty hard.

Seriously? At this point there are probably going to be more R senators voting to object than not. I’m pretty sure the following vote to object:

  1. Paul;
  2. Rubio
  3. Cruz;
  4. Hawley;
  5. Tuberville;
  6. Graham;
  7. Grassley;
  8. Ernst;
  9. Inhofe;
  10. Lankford;
  11. McConnell;
  12. Scott;
  13. and Probably Mcconnell if I’m being honest
    And that’s just off the top of my head.

disagree with several here

Rubio no.
Grassley no.
Inhofe no.
Scott (Rick or Tim) no.
McConnell no.

Graham doubtful

Blackburn maybe.

They aren’t going to sign onto the initial objection but once it goes to a vote, who knows. Anyone up in 2022 will be imagining fighting off a primary from a Q’er and having to face their vote against dear leader’s coup. Rubio will definitely be in play.

Yeah, that’s the thing, it’s like the house. 140 are voting for it in the house. It’s not about who’s initially objecting. Once one person objects the dam is open. Maybe McConnell won’t vote for it though. I find it hard to believe, but it looks like the death of the American Experiment might be a bridge to far for even him: https://www.axios.com/mcconnell-calls-jan-6-certification-his-most-consequential-vote-323cd74c-7dfa-4420-bd32-32a36398dadc.html

Re: McConnell: I mean this could be disinformation or kayfabe, but I doubt it.

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1344727635000229890

As has been pointed out before, the last time a senator objected was 2005 to point out irregularities in Ohio. Senator Boxer said that she didn’t wish to overturn the results.

The final roll call on that objection was 1-74. Link

I know the climate is way different today, I understand the worry over primary challengers. But it’s very likely McConnell and leadership will be whipping against, no matter the results of the Georgia runoff.

The GOP is now the computer from Space Odyssey 2001

trump cabinet 8c maybe hitting 9.

I already sold out my trump cabinet yes shares though so it’ll end up 15c to spite me.

edit–pompeo back to 9c. lolol just uh, ignore your giant red arrows for now I guess.

BRING BACK THESE MARKETS

(lol at this article over a guy who made $400 btw)

I’m starting to think that betting on democratic clean sweep and dems to take the senate might be +EV.

lol, I just scored $175 off of the Hunter indictment alone, what’s holding this guy back?