I refuse to waiver from “a point or two in either direction” no matter what anyone says.
I’m probably going to bet a little bit the other way since I hammered the sportsbooks that weren’t paying attention +150 for each race lines the last two days. (they are paying attention now…)
Well from the article
Cage had been following politics obsessively since the 2016 election, and he thought PredictIt would be a good way to test his newfound political acumen. So he bet that Kanye would run for president.
“That’s probably my proudest moment,” he said. “I dumped 20 cents in November 2018 and netted a dollar off that investment.”
In general, Cage’s predictions weren’t much better than if he had chosen at random.
Probably that.
I really think McConnell made a huge unforced error by blocking the 2k stimulus checks. I mean holy shit, it’s not even that much money in the grand scheme of things, and it has like 80 percent to 17 percent public support, and it might cost him the damned senate.
I maintain he is not a master strategist.
When the whole system is built upon a bunch of rules and you just decide to stop following them, that’s not that smart (though it did take some balls and a willingness to bet Democrats would be too weak to respond appropriately). It works until it doesn’t.
He also has run like the god damn sun. Trump binking 2016, RBG dying, holding (probably) the senate this year.
I mean does mitch care that much if lol Biden takes the senate with a majority of 1? Far more important to shut down any idea that regular people can make demands of the government and have them met.
I don’t know, it’s the difference between confirming zero judges the next four years and having at least one more liberal justice locked into being unable to retire, versus confirming lots of judges and getting Breyer at least off the supreme court, and maybe getting lucky and having someone like Thomas… leave the court.
2 years. And he knows how to block and wait. With the coming mega austerity post covid it’s possible he’d rather have a full dem house for 2 years so he can blame them.
Come on dude, it’s unquestionably a huge loss for Mitch and Republicans and conservatism if Dems take the senate.
I think he genuinely hates poor people, not even kidding. And he also hates Trump, and democrats. I truly believe it’s just a reflexive “fuck you, because I can” move. He’s been getting away with it for a decade now, that has to cloud his thinking.
Yeah, weird take. OFC things get worse when Cocaine Mitch can’t block every single appointment.
It seems Mitch has completely lost control, but it’s going to be close whether it’s 13+ or not. It looks like 12 are now publicly saying they will object.
Except that almost certainly Mitch is going to both keep the money away from poor folk AND retain his majority.
Yeah, I’m selling my shares and reversing my position here. Looks like the party is 100% tying themselves to Trump’s legacy.
I reread the market again and it looks like there’s a difference between objectors and voting on the objection, sot hat’s the real question. The number of republican senators voting to sustain the objection is easily going to be 25+.
Maybe he will. But it’s not almost certainly at this point. And his risk/reward on opposing this is illogical.
Mitch may actually be a true-believer on this issue, in which case it’s not really an error.
Also it’s only an error as far as you are concerned, if he goes 0/2. So, let’s revisit this next week.
Yea, there will be more who vote to reject than there are those that sign on to the initial objection imo. The vote market is the one that has 13+ as an option. The objection market is 7+.
Oh, it’s a vote market for 13+? Yeah, that’s the mortal lock of the century.
there’s multiple markets, one of them is just votes, the other needs signature, this is completely different, some people will vote but not sign.
clearly this is bottom up not top down which probably means over 20% still seriously believe the election was stolen from trump. Yeah, we’re boned.
lol me for only taking 50 shares of none and 1 or 2 for votes at the prices I got them at.
Like honestly, at this point you should just be counting republican senators who will vote no. I’ve got probably Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse, and maybe Thune. That’s all I’ve got. I think everyone else votes yes on it, including McConnell.
I’ll bet mcconnell if you want