How much risk is there in like, Yellen or other uncontroversial cabinet picks? Obviously Pompeo No etc. are all free money, but what are possible senate shenanigans?
I’d be a little nervous about some of the no’s to be honest. In the middle of a national crisis you could see Biden letting someone stay on while his people are still being confirmed. Not someone like Pompeo, or Miller, but maybe someone like Chao or Carson? The time period between January 20 and March 1 is pretty compressed.
Yeah, this is why I’m not loading up. I’ve got 1 share of No on each of Pompeo, Mnuchin, DeVos, and Carson, but suppose that the Senate is in 100% Screw You, we’re not going to confirm anyone mode. It seems plausible to me that Biden would keep one of those for a few weeks before appointing an acting secretary. I think the odds are low, but I don’t think it’s free money. Pompeo and DeVos are probably locks to be gone, though.
Yeah, I think Pompeo and Devos are probably pretty close to free money. Pompeo at least. The rest of them, I’d say there’s a chance that you could lose that bet, and you’re betting 95 cents to win 5 anyway, before fees, so I don’t think they’re good bets. Just too high of a risk of ruin.
Ratcliffe at DNI and Wheeler at EPA seem like locks as well to me.
Biden deserves to be punched in the dick if he keeps any of those four fuckers in as acting even for a second. Not only are they evil, but they are also patently incompetent. We don’t need continuity of any kind from those people. He can install someone else as acting while everything gets sorted.
That’s not to say he won’t do it.
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is this where I point out that every other time in the history of the universe they all snap resigned day 1
You guys are going to tell me I’m crazy and I’m lighting money on fire (and you’re going to be correct) but not only did I hold most of my positions, I also bought a bunch of Hawley NO at 5c… 
(I did sell off some to reduce my taxable gains from 2020)
I mean I think it’s really unlikely he keeps anyone on for a second. But man, I wouldn’t bet $850 to win $30 on it.
When Obama kept Gates on he resigned and then was reappointed and reconfirmed by the senate?
January 6th is in 7 days. I guess there could be a 5 percent chance he catches COVID in the next 7 days and is sidelined.
I’m just here for the MAGA tears. I have no idea what the lines are on any of these things.
If the senate does not confirm then all markets will resolve to NO. Biden is not keeping any of Trumps cabinet around.
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I think yelled and blinken YES are pretty safe. Some of the other picks Biden could delay until after mar 1 but he is going to want SoS and treasury sec on day 1
I’m not seeing any arguments that convince me that the GOP will confirm anyone in any circumstances.
Unless he decides to keep them on they resolve as no. And he’s already picked people for most of the positions.
With the positions where Biden hasn’t selected a nominee I agree there’s sone risk in the trump nominee No, so I’ve laid off those
Mitch has repeatedly stated he’s gonna bring them up for a vote, though he is gonna try to torpedo a few of them, he’s not gonna block at least the main ones.
a few people in the house there’s been some chatter they might get delayed due to the lower house margin but one incoming R just croaked so. Biden’s repeatedly said he isn’t interested in wasting any time.
Blinken/Yellen will get confirmed pretty quickly. Some others may get some pushback but I’m mostly on team yes.
Guess I missed him saying that thanks.
7+ objections is pumping hard but I’m not seeing why anywhere? I’m also not grasping why 4 objections is priced so high.
trump cabinet now 7-8 cents
GA senate special now a coinflip
the poster that said mitch wouldn’t be able to keep the senate in line (reed?) was exactly right