The incentive for her to object shifts a ton on the 6th vs the 4th, and she’s priced near the senators most likely to build a presidential run on a grandstanding objection. Seems especially irrational given the quick falloff in prices in “How many Senators will sign onto a formal objection to election results?”
Ah, I understand.
Is anyone using Polymarket? I don’t understand how it works, there’s so much crypto jargon in the description and it seems sketchy af. How do markets get resolved, it has to be a human judgement call so who makes the call?
eh, I think all of the markets are straightforward? Like will trump be inaugurated on X date isn’t gonna be disputable.
You need USDC to wager on there, which you can get on coinbase.
it’s different than PI, there’s no order books but it’s still peer vs peer effectively. I’m not quite understanding myself but whatever.
It’s probably like some books, just be careful, I don’t know who these people are plunking down 10k+ on it though, I’m not gonna do that but I’m dabbling a little.
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There’s a “market integrity committee”.
Still plenty of free MAGA money on the cabinets. No on Pompeo etc. 5% return until 1/20 pretty good.
Will probably withdraw after then.
those won’t resolve until 3/1, so it’s 3.x% return on 1/21 when maga abandons ship.
Sure, 3.x% in 1 month or 5% in 2.5 months is pretty great annualized return
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https://twitter.com/JayFiveK/status/1341921258259275778
https://twitter.com/comedygulag/status/1341922619159769088
https://twitter.com/Kingwoo67/status/1341528287856578561
not gonna click that link but I think we got a winner on the tear contest
kanye 0 in there is hilarious
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Only flier I have atm is raimondo doesn’t leave a gov spot for sec of commerce but I’m not bold enough to max that
Anyone playing IA-02? I don’t see any chance of the house stepping in.
I believe R will at least provisionally get the seat but dunno what PI is gonna do, D isn’t gonna give up lawsuits for awhile
trump cabinet slowly trickling up
I also like the $0.02 balance
https://twitter.com/Yokie_Wartooth/status/1341976328178954241
https://twitter.com/IfALawIsUnjust/status/1341965455322451968
https://twitter.com/TimmyTrump5/status/1342327601923149825
https://twitter.com/TimmyTrump5/status/1342243702949888000
https://twitter.com/StephStance/status/1342232833767727104
https://twitter.com/kiwitrump/status/1342213655702745091
merry christmas and all through the house, these people were still complaining because they clicked a mouse
14 Likes
Yeah, damn. I’m gonna have red arrow soon cuz I didn’t enter these all at a great price. None of the MAGA cabinets have a chance right? I assumed they are basically all going to resign or be fired or replaced with ‘acting’ by Biden pretty much immediately. And all of the markets have a " Upon the End Date, should the office of XX be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No." I’m in all ~20 of the markets so I guess if I somehow got one wrong I’ll break even
One of the big movers on that side is a guy who just flips margins all day pumping in the PI comments section. He’s just trying to push it because he realized what I had, that it’s brutally difficult to beat it back down with all the money paid out now and no reason to deposit for a 4/5c market. (dude cleared 6 figs on PI this year and a decent chunk is just from shitposting)
That said, trumpers still are buying trump to win this election over 10c on polymarket
I sold out a lot of NO’s at 96, bought maybe too little on yes to flip later but I’m still underwater on those so lol me. If things get contested enough on jan 6 that might get back to 15 or something who knows, a lot of maga is probably gone though now or completely broke.
also when it’s seriously over, some of those cabinet yes’s will steam up to at least 95.
I think the NY-22 is incorrectly priced and has a lot of equity… if you want to get blood on your hands and bet on the republican. The market just swung huge to the dem because he took a nominal 14 vote lead in the latest update after the judge resolved some more challenges. However what I think the casual betters aren’t realizing, is that the democrat (Brindisi) has like 50 percent more outstanding challenged ballots then the republican (Tenney). The candidates know what they’re doing so the ballots they have challenged should be breaking heavily for their opponent (and have been so far). And it’s still hundreds of ballots, more than enough to swing the race the other way. The republican should be a favorite here. Even if you just want to get in at 33 cents, I’d bet the market swings back and forth a few more times and you can exit at higher than that.
And 8 hours after posting this the market moved to 60/40. Less equity now.