MAGAs last stand? Unfortunately the wording of the market is pretty bad.
If it was “Will Mike Pence announce Joe Biden as the presidential election winner in joint session?”
I think it would be trading at like 10c lower.
same with 6+ when the fish got upset three of a kind beat a straight, support probably got a ton of calls on it that first day. Also that being hidden was a fatal flaw for action outside a week anyway. Flop the nut straight and all you have is a bluff catcher essentially is ridiculous.
Pence is supposed to be on an international flight some point the next day or morning, if they’re gonna contest 6+ states he might not even be there when it happens.
I hate that I have to consider the tax implications of these objection bets. I really don’t want to pay taxes on winnings that could evaporate within a few days.
objection bets are 2021 year taxes not this one
That’s what I meant, worded poorly. I mean pay this year’s taxes on 2020 winnings (i.e. election bets) that I’ve rolled into objection bets and could easily become 2021 losses.
If I sell at a loss and instantly rebuy I could reduce my tax burden in 2020, but then I’d be increasing the amount of fees PI takes if I win the bet by decreasing my cost basis (since I don’t get fee “credit” when I realize a losing position).
There won’t be general election type of opportunities, but there are usually still free money still available a few cents at a time. I’ve left a decent amount on there for four years and been able to roll from market to market for a few cents and am pretty sure I’m getting a better return than parking it elsewhere. It will heat up again in 2022 a bit and then once primaries for 2024 start it should be pretty lucrative again.
I’m not sure there will ever be freer money than what we just witnessed. Not just on predictit, but anywhere.
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https://twitter.com/RealSBRogers/status/1341522235979390983
https://twitter.com/count_christo/status/1341503144551882752
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The withdrawal fee is killer though.
That’s fair. I think I’m just gunshy about leaving money sitting on what is essentially a gambling website for too long without a good reason.
No, I agree with you there. I withdrew my roll for the same reason
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Yeah, I think PI is on the up-and-up, but realistically there’s no recourse for you if they go up in smoke for whatever reason. I wouldn’t keep money on there that you can’t afford to lose if some disaster hits.
so I went back through my notifications and someone gave me a dollar for minnesota not being the tipping point resolved in <12 hours. The laugh worth far more value thanks whoever that was.
Even when fully aware of it before depositing on the site, seeing the withdraw fee they get you for after already taking a cut of profits is pretty gross. I just paid a lot of money for the privilege of getting my money back.
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People still lighting money on fire at Polymarket. It’s too bad PredictIt doesn’t open an inauguration market.
https://twitter.com/PolymarktWhales/status/1341618052211879937
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I try to think of it like high poker rake sites back in 2004, if you wanna play all fish this is what you gotta go through.
this and 2024 POTUS should’ve been up a long time ago
The “Will Kelly Loeffler sign a formal objection to presidential election results?” market on Predictit looks fairly bananas, currently at 21c for yes on January 6th.
Explain why you think that’s bananas? Because if she loses on January 5th she’s out? Or something else I”m missing?
Is it because you think the election won’t be certified in time for her to be seated? I’ve got $100 to throw on the no if it’s free money, just trying to make sure I’m understanding why.