I think Pete might well win Iowa at this point but it’s a 4 way close burger at the moment and I don’t know how many of those votes were taken by klob last night (plus there are some who hate him now, but none of biden/sanders/warren are folksy midwesterner types)–then I’m immediately shorting him for SC and NH because he’s not going to win either of those but the market is full of idiots who will overreact.
Kicked myself hard I only had 50 shares of the AOC endorsement one and most of them were anti warren because that seemed free money–I really didn’t think she was gonna endorse someone for some time but it makes sense bernie camp wanted to get the last news regarding him to be anything else.
I’m also big on Tulsi not being in the next debate. if that one fails I’ll be very tilted and it’d be a big hit but I just don’t see how she’d qualify. She has the donors but 0 polls.
That’s fair, but in a world in which he’s leapfrogged both of them (plus Biden) and all of the attention turns to his surge, I think he has a shot. I didn’t say I think he’s a huge favorite. In a PredictIt sense, he’s currently at .07 for NH. If he wins IA, surely he’ll trade well above .07 in NH between now and then.
What’s causing it? Some right wing conspiracy theory stuff?
My concern on that one is Trump telling Barr to do it and Barr finding some lackey in the DOJ to do it. It’d be total bullshit, but I’m not convinced there’s not a 33% chance of it.
In response to what Mulvaney said, I just bought ~$200 worth of yes on Trump being impeached by the end of the year at .54 and .55. I also sold all 666 shares of Pete in SC at .04, and then put a buy order back in at .03. Might as well range trade that stuff a bit since it’s going to fluctuate quite a bit. Especially on Pete, who’s my least favorite SC bet against Biden.
I’m staying away from end of year stuff because there’s just so many crimes the House may delay the vote until Jan. That said, I think it’s more than 50/50.
Yeah, there’s a chance… But I think even in that case, as more of the news breaks it’ll shoot up and I can sell some of the position and hedge it into some of the other markets for end of first term.
McCabe did lie to them and that is a crime, so I would’ve bet yes if not for people in this thread making me shy away from it. I think they want to go after someone at this point. prove trump narrative and all that, get a win, etc.
There’s supposed to be an IG report by the end of the month on all this shit that’ll decide it.
I’m definitely willing to hear why I’m wrong–but I’m struggling to see why they wouldn’t charge him.
There was a report last month that federal prosecutors recommended charges.
Doesn’t seem like timeline (end of year due date) matters on this one to me but I’m not a LAW BRO
Still can’t help dipping into the “hillary will run in 2020” thread:
Are you in, or are out? That is the question.
The fat lady awaits her fate. Sitting in a rocking chair in Chapaquitick, or leading the free world.
A narcissist cannot change it’s behavior. It needs narcissistic “supply” to exist. It needs power.
Hillary needs to be president. She does not want to be president. Emotionally she is just a vacuous black hole without the narcissistic juice to thrive on.
She running. And we will make money off her pathology. Feels good.
Lol. A lot of these derps really like saying “feels good” or #feelgood at the end of all their insane drivel. I wonder where the origin of that is.
I gotta start boning up on whatever the batshit Q people believe because there has to be Q derp money aaaaalll over this site. Where do these guys hang out? Reddit?
so far I am up $200 on my initial $1k investment. Gonna buy a golfclub
i know you’re joking but that’s net of course. The only losses I’ve sustained have been on bets that have resolved, ironically. I think playing for line movements on undervalued stocks before a big event (eg democratic debate) is the way to go.
The only long position I have is the hillary running, because it’s just too hilarious to me that the bet even exists.
