Oh snap
I actually like Yes on 6 and 7 or more. High risk, high reward. But it only takes one R senator to want to keep the circus going. And if they challenge 1, it seems very likely they challenge at least 6 (Mi, Wi, Pa, Ga, Az, Nv).
Now if there was a market for whether any challenges would be successful, that’s where the free anti maga money would be on no.
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what’s the 7th?
Agree w/ this logic. It seems like if there is a Senator that is gonna go full stupid, they’ll at least contest the number of states required for Trump to win the election. (So maybe not 6, but ‘NO’ on like 1/2/3 seems free money). I don’t have any more money to bet though as I’m waiting for my bets to be graded. SAD!
MAGA 280+ EC MARGIN OF VICTORY LASER EYES MEME (They contest every Dem state or something like that)
looks like those contested states are sending the trump elector votes too so we’re all gonna be waiting till jan 6th
Yeah but the electors are predetermined… so that shouldn’t matter… right? What they are doing would be no different than like if unstuck mailed in a set of electoral votes.
Can we do that?
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I’m not sure, maybe MN, or someone goes full idiot and challenges CA or NY or IL.
I’m meeting with my wife in the living room right now to select our own electors to send in.
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https://twitter.com/PolymarktWhales/status/1338421858073518081?s=19
Just someone casually lighting $10k on fire
So many great new markets that I can’t play in because they won’t close the freaking EC markets.
what’s there to close, it’s still in dispute and will be till Jan 6
fyp
My guess is that predict figured out that if there was any dispute at all that led to them paying both sides, they would be out of business. So when you are facing death, you tend to be conservative.
PredictIt is never going to close these markets are they? It’s gonna be like 2028 and we’re gonna be like, “Well this seems to be the last legal challenge!”
The most egregious ones not settled are the state markets. The rules state it is the popular vote winner of that state. The popular vote is certified. Any electoral shenanigans (that aren’t going to happen anyway) are irrelevant to the popular vote. There isn’t even any pending litigation anymore.
this isn’t true at all regarding litigation, it’s non stop
anyway, 1960 Hawaii at this time sent Nixon electors and the dems also sent theirs, the state later flipped and the gov signed off on the other electors. Everything isn’t final until it is. Certification means nothing. Georgia certified 3 times with different votes already. The due date is Jan 6th when it’s all counted basically.
I can’t find if Michigan is sending the alternate electors or not out there sadly for uh betting purposes. I don’t see it so if not that one will pay out.
I guess there are a few that haven’t been fully extinguished. Still no reason to delay settling.
https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1338560070582407169?s=19